A very slow and surprising Tuesday given easter break is finished. Liquidity was flowing through from Monday up until the close. Today we have seen a very slow climb to the downside - not much of a reaction from our recent political news with Trump & the Jerome Powells thoughts on cutting rates.
Personal opinion - markets were very reactionary on the tarrifs. There is some consensus for bad news to come out in the UK which are labelled "high importance" - price action could be factoring in this for today, however, we must consider the fact of how slow bears did today technically both in European & US markets sessions.
Swing to the upside & knock off to knock off 1.34 before anything further. However, we can still see a potential short term continuation to the mid 50s in 1.32, where I will slowly take away positions.
No stop loss, swing trade, opened positions ranging from 1.3345-1.3375 areas. Just wanted to share an idea in the midst of now of a good speculative entry.
Personal opinion - markets were very reactionary on the tarrifs. There is some consensus for bad news to come out in the UK which are labelled "high importance" - price action could be factoring in this for today, however, we must consider the fact of how slow bears did today technically both in European & US markets sessions.
Swing to the upside & knock off to knock off 1.34 before anything further. However, we can still see a potential short term continuation to the mid 50s in 1.32, where I will slowly take away positions.
No stop loss, swing trade, opened positions ranging from 1.3345-1.3375 areas. Just wanted to share an idea in the midst of now of a good speculative entry.
Trade active
The headline news doesn't match with the recent dip. News outlets needed to find a reason for the dump. Yes - the market could of been reactionary to Jerome Powell not getting fired, but how significant is that ? Trump has set a very volatile stage, a push up into sterling could mean higher sterling in the long-run. Anyways - we will keep it a buck and continue to hold and be on the side-lines. No positions where added or taken away. Note
It seems rather unlikely than not we will see a 1%+ gain on GBPUSD today - both Asia & UK/Europe sessions have been aligning with each other whilst the US crossover is buying up dollars. This pattern may continue for the rest of the day, where we see and dip back into mid 1.32s. Nothing confirmed but an observation from the last 2 trading days. Note
Durable Goods Came in HOT — But Here’s Why That’s Not Good NewsDurable goods data for April — which actually reflects activity from March — showed an eye-popping 460% surge. On the surface, this might read like a bullish signal. But let’s be clear: this isn’t strength, it’s stress.
This spike isn’t about economic momentum — it’s panic buying.
Here’s what’s really happening:
The jump happened before the most recent tariff increases (from 125% to 150%) were even implemented.
That suggests buyers rushed to lock in prices ahead of anticipated hikes, fearing even higher costs down the line.
It’s not demand strength — it’s demand distortion, pulled forward by uncertainty and headline risk.
Looking ahead? If next month’s figures also stay elevated — that's not because conditions are improving, but because there’s still no confirmed trade deal, and consumer behavior is being driven by the headlines they very well read.
Trump has stated he is near a resolution but on the contrary China says he is nowhere near confirming a deal. The panic buying will continue - a partial play with distorting the nominal GDP figure. We must take into account US explosive growth, a slowdown after a "deal" is confirmed can be expected with stagflation on the rise.
While Trump signals a deal with China is “near,” Beijing’s messaging tells a very different story — we’re nowhere close. That disconnect is fueling ongoing panic buying, especially in durables. Why? Because buyers are front-loading purchases to dodge further tariff shocks.
This behavior is inflating short-term economic data, distorting nominal GDP figures in the process.
Let’s break it down:
Panic now, pay later: With no confirmed trade resolution, the market is responding to headlines, not fundamentals. This demand distortion will continue until real clarity emerges.
Inflated growth illusion: The U.S. appears to be in an "explosive growth" phase on paper — but this is a front-loaded cycle. Once a deal is confirmed, expect a sharp pullback.
Stagflation watch: Higher input costs + slower post-deal demand = a dangerous mix. We’re inching toward a stagflationary environment — elevated inflation with stagnating growth.
Note
Retail sales in the UK are expected to come in deeper in the red than anticipated this morning. While that clearly signals a degree of consumer weakness, it's not entirely negative — there’s still a viable path to natural recovery. With inflation easing and rate cut expectations in play, organic demand has the potential to stabilize over time without needing aggressive stimulus.On the other side of the Atlantic, I expect US consumer expectations for April, along with sentiment data for the month, to post a positive surprise. But that optimism is misleading. It's not driven by genuine confidence or improving fundamentals — it’s a direct result of the inflated durable goods data from yesterday. That spike wasn’t a sign of strength; it was panic buying, front-loaded behavior in anticipation of higher tariffs. These figures are now bleeding into broader sentiment indicators, distorting the macro picture and creating a false narrative of resilience.
Note
So, I’ll admit I was off on UK expectations — but not by much. Retail sales did decline, though at a more measured pace than forecasts suggested. This puts a dent in the overly dramatic "headwinds" narrative being pushed by outlets citing Commerzbank, and at the same time vindicates Goldman’s call for upside in cable. The weakness is real, but it's not collapsing — it’s just moving with broader disinflation and demand moderation.As for the US, today’s consumer sentiment and expectations data will likely be mixed. Sentiment could print positive, but expectations are likely to come in softer, and that’s the real tell. It reflects the underlying uncertainty — that fear-driven consumption spike in durables isn’t fooling anyone who's actually reading beyond the headline.
Note
On a separate note: Added more positions around the 1.33 mark. Note
Update: Just wanted to make a weekend update that I had slashed up to 40% of my positioning in GBPUSD around the 1.3325 area coming into the new week to free up some leverage & capital. Came to a breakeven point with some of the initial positions. There are still positions on hold, and it is likely that I will not be trading GBPUSD coming into this new week. The price mark still remains active. ThanksTrade closed: target reached
1.34 has been knocked off, challenging swing. Luckily the idea came on my lap given last weeks data inputs. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.