Analysis description Timeframe 1H The local uptrend changed to a correction to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, after which we collected liquidity within the yellow zone and formed a new uptrend channel . At the moment, the price has broken through the lower boundary of the channel and is testing the yellow zone.
Indicators are neutral; we are above 50, 200MA but below 100MA; volatility is declining; several times 50MA has been a support and 100MA a resistance.
Timeframe 4H Inside the channel, the absorption of the green broadband candle was formed, which marked the boundaries of the channel and liquidity zone.
On the stochastic RSI , we are in an overbought zone; a reversal signal may form on the TD Sequential; price is above 50, 100 and 200MA, but the slides are located from the top down beginning with 200 and ending with 50; 200MA acted as support several times.
Forecasts I am considering a LONG from current levels with two possible scenarios.
The first scenario is the most favorable. We return to the uptrend channel and trade within the ascending triangle between the lower boundary of the channel and the level of 1.35895, break the triangle up and go to the lower boundary of the red zone at 1.36280, breaking through the line of the global downtrend.
The second scenario involves a correction from current levels and a re-gathering of liquidity in the yellow zone. We may go down to 1.35400 and 1.35280 and consider a position averaging from these levels.
For a global trend change it is necessary to break the downtrend and close above the level of 1.36280.
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