GBP/USD. Fundamental factors are crucial!
Starting from September 'Cable' is rising. After the correction till the beginning of October the uptrend continues. On October 21-st the British pound reached its resistance line (1,30000). BUT there are several disturbing factors that may prevent the correction.
Fundamental factors:
On Friday 25-th 27 EU Ambassadors are discussing BREXIT extension again and 3-month delay is most likely. On this news British pound might continue rising. Otherwise we will see correction down.
Regardless the situation with BREXIT the British economy is in stagnation as well the the others:
CPI (Sep): +0,1% the previous fact +0.4%
BRC Retail sales monitor: -1,7% the previous fact -0,5%
Retail sales (Sep): 0,0% the previous fact -0,3% (Core retail sales is slightly better than in August)
Industrial production (Aug): -0,6% the previous fact was +0,1%
Manufacturing PMI: 48,3 (has been remaining below 50 since June 2019)
Technical factors:
1. There is a bullish 'flag' - this is a positive signal for 'Cable'
2. GBP/USD might finish forming the 3-rd Elliott's wave. It means that the 4-th correction wave is on its way. In this scenario the currency shouldn't fall below 1,26000
3. On 1W TF 200-EMA is heading down
4. MACD lines are still heading up, but MACD histogram started reversing.
Summary: of course, it is better to wait for Friday but the global picture is more negative. We expect GBP to fall down.
Fundamental factors:
On Friday 25-th 27 EU Ambassadors are discussing BREXIT extension again and 3-month delay is most likely. On this news British pound might continue rising. Otherwise we will see correction down.
Regardless the situation with BREXIT the British economy is in stagnation as well the the others:
CPI (Sep): +0,1% the previous fact +0.4%
BRC Retail sales monitor: -1,7% the previous fact -0,5%
Retail sales (Sep): 0,0% the previous fact -0,3% (Core retail sales is slightly better than in August)
Industrial production (Aug): -0,6% the previous fact was +0,1%
Manufacturing PMI: 48,3 (has been remaining below 50 since June 2019)
Technical factors:
1. There is a bullish 'flag' - this is a positive signal for 'Cable'
2. GBP/USD might finish forming the 3-rd Elliott's wave. It means that the 4-th correction wave is on its way. In this scenario the currency shouldn't fall below 1,26000
3. On 1W TF 200-EMA is heading down
4. MACD lines are still heading up, but MACD histogram started reversing.
Summary: of course, it is better to wait for Friday but the global picture is more negative. We expect GBP to fall down.
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