Fundamental Market Analysis for February 21, 2025 GBPUSD

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The GBP/USD pair declined after hitting a two-month high of 1.26740 on Friday and was trading near 1.26700 at the time of writing during the Asian session. However, the pair strengthened as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 219,000 in the week ended February 14, above the expected 215,000. Jobless claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just below the forecast of 1.87 million.

Additionally, GBP/USD rose amid improving market sentiment after US President Donald Trump signaled potential progress in trade talks with China, easing market fears over tariffs.

On Thursday, Fed chief Adriana Kugler said U.S. inflation still has “some way to go” before it reaches its 2% target, acknowledging uncertainty in the future, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized the potential risks of stagflation and rising inflation expectations. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic left open the possibility of two rate cuts this year depending on economic conditions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.26700, SL 1.27300, TP 1.25600

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