GBPUSD Shows a GOOD Short Entry
Updated
Hello Traders,
I see a good short entry on GBPUSD and here is why:
* Fundamentally:
The USD is strong, pushed with the US inflation numbers which are getting higher and the FED hawkish tone that they are going to keep the interest rates higher for longer and might have another rate hike. On the other hand, the BOE couldn't raise up the interest rate and have more dovish tone because inflation numbers in UK, although they are higher but slowing in a steady pace and the Labor and GDP numbers shows a weak economy.
On the Global side, the political tensions are on its highest with the Ukrainian war, the China Taiwan tension and the resent news of the Middle East conflicts, these factors push up the USD as a safe heaven asset.
- GDP Growth: (GBP: 0.2% / USD: 2.1%)
- Unemployment: (GBP: 4.3% / USD: 3.8%)
- Inflation: (GBP: 6.7% / USD: 3.7%)
- Interest Rates: (GBP: 5.25% / USD: 5.50%)
Sentiment:
- COT Report: shows /75.2%/ of the institutional open contracts are long on the USD, while /47.8%/ are long on the GBP, with an increase in GBP shorts the recent report.
- Retail Sentiment: 67% of retail traders are Long GBPUSD.
*Technical:
The price is in a strong down trend with lower highs and lower lows, and it pull back to the previous high which is a resistance level.
This week we have the US PPI & CPI numbers and the UK GDP m/m so expect some volatility.
If the price hit the stop loss, I'm still looking for short entries on the higher resistance level around /1.23600/
Trade Safe!
I see a good short entry on GBPUSD and here is why:
* Fundamentally:
The USD is strong, pushed with the US inflation numbers which are getting higher and the FED hawkish tone that they are going to keep the interest rates higher for longer and might have another rate hike. On the other hand, the BOE couldn't raise up the interest rate and have more dovish tone because inflation numbers in UK, although they are higher but slowing in a steady pace and the Labor and GDP numbers shows a weak economy.
On the Global side, the political tensions are on its highest with the Ukrainian war, the China Taiwan tension and the resent news of the Middle East conflicts, these factors push up the USD as a safe heaven asset.
- GDP Growth: (GBP: 0.2% / USD: 2.1%)
- Unemployment: (GBP: 4.3% / USD: 3.8%)
- Inflation: (GBP: 6.7% / USD: 3.7%)
- Interest Rates: (GBP: 5.25% / USD: 5.50%)
Sentiment:
- COT Report: shows /75.2%/ of the institutional open contracts are long on the USD, while /47.8%/ are long on the GBP, with an increase in GBP shorts the recent report.
- Retail Sentiment: 67% of retail traders are Long GBPUSD.
*Technical:
The price is in a strong down trend with lower highs and lower lows, and it pull back to the previous high which is a resistance level.
This week we have the US PPI & CPI numbers and the UK GDP m/m so expect some volatility.
If the price hit the stop loss, I'm still looking for short entries on the higher resistance level around /1.23600/
Trade Safe!
Trade closed: stop reached
The Price hit the stop loss. I'm still looking for short entries but waiting the price to give a bearish signal. I'll update later on here if a got a good sell entry.Note
PPI: 0.5% / Core PPI: 0.3%, both numbers were higher than expected.These numbers support the hawkish FED.
The market didn't move much, waiting for the US CPI data and GBP GDP tomorrow.
If the US CPI numbers are higher than expected, we most likely see a good drop in the pair.
Note
US CPI: 0.4% , Core CPI: 0.3% , CPI y/y: 3.7%Inflation isn't cooling down, this keep the FED hawkish whish means strong USD.
Although the numbers were slightly higher than expected but the GBP sinks.
The price hit my stop loss before going down, I'm looking for another short entry when then price give a pullback.
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