GBPUSD Insight

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With the release of disappointing U.S. employment data last Friday, concerns about a cooling job market have intensified. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who attended Senate and House hearings, presented a dovish view on the current high-interest rate monetary policy of the Fed. This has led to increased expectations for a rate cut in September. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Labour Party achieved a landslide victory in the early general election, and an interest rate cut is anticipated in August.

- On July 11, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be released.

- On July 12, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June will be released.

- On July 15, there will be a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

- On July 16, U.S. retail sales data will be released.

- On July 17, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June and the Eurozone CPI for June will be released.

GBPUSD is on the verge of breaking past its previous high of 1.28600. If this level is breached, the upward trend is expected to continue to the 1.32000 level. However, it is unlikely that the rise will continue straight to the trend high of 1.36000. A pullback to the 1.29000 level is expected before the uptrend slowly resumes.

In summary, a short-term rise to the 1.32000 level is expected, followed by a medium-term decline to the 1.29000 level.

If the movements differ from expectations, I will quickly adjust the strategy.

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