GBP/USD - Short Bias. Even with relative dollar weakness at the moment, Cable risk is still favored to the downside. Trend is down, lower swing high confirmed, and price closed on Daily below 1.45 support handle, now new resistance. EMAs are flat, not indicating any bullish momentum at the moment. Price closed below the EMAs as well. Retail traders have added to their over long positions since last week as well, buying into the price declines of the last 3 days. The net Retail long position ratio now stands at 1.97, further confirming that continued downside moves are more likely than an upside reversal.
Alternative Trade: If Price breaks out again and closes above 1.46 on a Daily candle, and the EMAs cross up into the 1.45 - 1.46 layer, and net Retail long positions fall, then I would shift my bias to long and look for PA signals to buy from 1.46 with targets up to 1.51.
Alternative Trade: If Price breaks out again and closes above 1.46 on a Daily candle, and the EMAs cross up into the 1.45 - 1.46 layer, and net Retail long positions fall, then I would shift my bias to long and look for PA signals to buy from 1.46 with targets up to 1.51.
Note
Entered short trade on 1HR Chart Price Action signal today. As of 5:22 PM, retail net long positions have fallen from 1.97 yesterday to 1.89 today. This reflects retail selling in light of the upward retracement of price today. Sharp retail selling can indicate bullish risk reversal may occur. However, short bias remains for the moment because of the 2nd daily close below the key resistance zone 1.45 - 1.46, and the long ratio is still above 1.5, which in this larger downtrend in the GBPUSD points to greater probability of downside continuation from key resistance than upside risk reversal.Note
Retail long net increased again to 1.9376. Increased odds of downside continuation. Holding short.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.