As I assess the GBP/USD market today, I see that the current price is 1.32466, and I’ve taken a sell position at 1.32480, which is moving well. Based on recent fundamentals, technical indicators, and historical weekly data, here’s my full market breakdown:
Fundamentals & Economic Outlook
Recent US economic data has provided mixed signals for the dollar:
Initial & 4-Week Jobless Claims: Came in lower than expected, signaling a stronger labor market, which supports USD strength.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Higher than expected, showing some lingering unemployment pressure.
Housing Starts: Significantly below expectations, hinting at weakness in real estate.
Building Permits: Surpassed expectations, suggesting future construction remains strong.
Looking ahead to next week, key events will shape price action:
UK S&P Global PMIs: If manufacturing and services figures improve, GBP may gain traction.
US PMIs & Home Sales: Expected to trend lower, possibly weakening USD momentum.
UK Retail Sales (Friday): Anticipated to drop significantly, which could weigh on GBP.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Forecasted to decline, potentially putting USD under pressure.
With these fundamental factors, GBP/USD faces mixed conditions—potential volatility ahead.
Momentum readings show caution for bulls:
Short-term (1-minute to 15-minute) indicators suggest mild consolidation.
The 1-hour and daily charts indicate GBP/USD is overextended compared to historical averages.
Weekly and monthly averages are much lower (~1.27047 and 1.23141), signaling the risk of mean reversion.
Trading Strategy & Considerations
Since I’m already in a sell position, I’m watching support levels closely for profit-taking zones.
If price dips near 1.3100, I might secure partial profits before assessing further downside potential.
I’ll keep an eye on daily EMA (~1.25176) as a deeper support that might act as a turning point.
Technical divergences (such as the Accumulation Distribution Oscillator) hint at distribution pressure, reinforcing my bearish bias.
With all this being said, i'm looking for a new pair to dive deep into. What do you recommend and why? Im all ears! also dont hesitate to reach out id love to talk about forex! :) im in the works of creating a youtube page and maybe a X account. Hope to reach some of you there as well.
p.s i love this shit!
Fundamentals & Economic Outlook
Recent US economic data has provided mixed signals for the dollar:
Initial & 4-Week Jobless Claims: Came in lower than expected, signaling a stronger labor market, which supports USD strength.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Higher than expected, showing some lingering unemployment pressure.
Housing Starts: Significantly below expectations, hinting at weakness in real estate.
Building Permits: Surpassed expectations, suggesting future construction remains strong.
Looking ahead to next week, key events will shape price action:
UK S&P Global PMIs: If manufacturing and services figures improve, GBP may gain traction.
US PMIs & Home Sales: Expected to trend lower, possibly weakening USD momentum.
UK Retail Sales (Friday): Anticipated to drop significantly, which could weigh on GBP.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Forecasted to decline, potentially putting USD under pressure.
With these fundamental factors, GBP/USD faces mixed conditions—potential volatility ahead.
Momentum readings show caution for bulls:
Short-term (1-minute to 15-minute) indicators suggest mild consolidation.
The 1-hour and daily charts indicate GBP/USD is overextended compared to historical averages.
Weekly and monthly averages are much lower (~1.27047 and 1.23141), signaling the risk of mean reversion.
Trading Strategy & Considerations
Since I’m already in a sell position, I’m watching support levels closely for profit-taking zones.
If price dips near 1.3100, I might secure partial profits before assessing further downside potential.
I’ll keep an eye on daily EMA (~1.25176) as a deeper support that might act as a turning point.
Technical divergences (such as the Accumulation Distribution Oscillator) hint at distribution pressure, reinforcing my bearish bias.
With all this being said, i'm looking for a new pair to dive deep into. What do you recommend and why? Im all ears! also dont hesitate to reach out id love to talk about forex! :) im in the works of creating a youtube page and maybe a X account. Hope to reach some of you there as well.
p.s i love this shit!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.