Just an Imagination or Real Technical Set up
We face probably to a Head and Shoulder which is normally a technical pattern of bearish reversal that appears as a result of a bullish trend. This technical configuration observed, leaves, from 1994 to present. So it's heavy! However, for some purists in the field of technical analysis, can reject this technical pattern because it does not precede any trend before its formation which took no less than 24 years. The question that arises is therefore that the premises surrounding this figure are not valid or not. Yet, at a glance, this graphic, visibly, does not suffer any dispute. But in terms of technical analysis, it is often said that there is no need to validate ''by the book'' technical observations, but rather to see the meaning of this visual observation if it holds the road or not. There is still ' ' the union minimum to be respected ' ' regarding a validation of any Chartist figure.
Fundamental factor : The meeting which was held recently in Salzburg (Austria) with the British first Theresa May, and the President of the European Council Donald F. Tusk, is considered, by the entire financial sphere as a bitter failure , at the level of negotiations, on the probable divorce between the European Union and the United Kingdom which should be activated on March 19th 2019 next. This meeting culminated in a bitter speech, pronounced by Theresa May, where she solemnly claimed, that she will prefer to opt for a ''no deal'' without agreement rather than a ''bad deal'' or agreement. The hard line adopted by these two parties (European Council and British Parliament) could constitute a real threat, considered by the players in the financial market, who believe that in the event of a divorce without agreement, the pound could collapse a severely. And it is this scenario that seems to be drawing on the horizon. The two main issues between the British Parliament and the European Council are limited to the share of the debt in terms of financial liability which the United Kingdom should pay, which would amount to 40 billion pounds sterling, or 55 billion EUR; And also the issue of immigration and the borders between Northern Ireland (Belfast) which belongs to the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland (Dublin) which is part of the European Union. Théséra May and the Conservative Party of the British Parliament do not want to fulfil this financial commitment especially since it wishes to recover Ireland in full (Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland) in order not to place a physical border Between these two territories. What the European Council of Donald Tusk would have refused categorically without proposing any alternative or counter-proposal!
Technical factor: This is still a technical observation of about 24 years. Each macroeconomic and political shock is incorporated into each monthly candle. The key line, in blue of 1.40550, which plays the role of neckline Also, has been tested quite often. The market broke it, retested it, and finally left. This means that as long as we stay below this line, the bias remains bearish and this probable Head and Shoulder will be validated especially as this political stalemate persists. In the case of invalidation, we would have to reintegrate this line and re-close over the 1.40550. But the validation, the signal, or the triggering of this configuration, in my humble opinion, will be given, if we break the 1.27750.
Fundamental factor : The meeting which was held recently in Salzburg (Austria) with the British first Theresa May, and the President of the European Council Donald F. Tusk, is considered, by the entire financial sphere as a bitter failure , at the level of negotiations, on the probable divorce between the European Union and the United Kingdom which should be activated on March 19th 2019 next. This meeting culminated in a bitter speech, pronounced by Theresa May, where she solemnly claimed, that she will prefer to opt for a ''no deal'' without agreement rather than a ''bad deal'' or agreement. The hard line adopted by these two parties (European Council and British Parliament) could constitute a real threat, considered by the players in the financial market, who believe that in the event of a divorce without agreement, the pound could collapse a severely. And it is this scenario that seems to be drawing on the horizon. The two main issues between the British Parliament and the European Council are limited to the share of the debt in terms of financial liability which the United Kingdom should pay, which would amount to 40 billion pounds sterling, or 55 billion EUR; And also the issue of immigration and the borders between Northern Ireland (Belfast) which belongs to the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland (Dublin) which is part of the European Union. Théséra May and the Conservative Party of the British Parliament do not want to fulfil this financial commitment especially since it wishes to recover Ireland in full (Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland) in order not to place a physical border Between these two territories. What the European Council of Donald Tusk would have refused categorically without proposing any alternative or counter-proposal!
Technical factor: This is still a technical observation of about 24 years. Each macroeconomic and political shock is incorporated into each monthly candle. The key line, in blue of 1.40550, which plays the role of neckline Also, has been tested quite often. The market broke it, retested it, and finally left. This means that as long as we stay below this line, the bias remains bearish and this probable Head and Shoulder will be validated especially as this political stalemate persists. In the case of invalidation, we would have to reintegrate this line and re-close over the 1.40550. But the validation, the signal, or the triggering of this configuration, in my humble opinion, will be given, if we break the 1.27750.
Francois Abley
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