There's No Exit in #Brexit
With the Brexit referendum vote on Thursday (6/23), markets are still volatile and uncertain with whether or not British voters will decide on leaving the European Union. As the Brexit polls began indicating that the "leave" vote began leading into this week on gaining momentum, the perplexed media were at odds on how to exactly explain the "phenomena."
First, one must realize that the "leave" component is similar to many political coups that have happened across the global in recent years: those feeling the most economically and politically disenfranchised. Over 50 percent of the "leave" vote, currently polling, are poorer Brits who are less educated and work middle-class working jobs. Conversely, the "remain" vote is primarily those well-off in society and have higher levels of education. It comes down to voting on pure establishment politics.
(We are witnessing the very same thing in the U.S. Presidential Campaign with Donald Trump supporters).
There's no exit in Brexit. The political elite simply will not allow ties to the European Union to be severed. The OECD, Int'l Monetary Fund, World Bank, as well as standing British politicians, embarked on fear-mongering tactics and courted disastrous results to a Brexit vote. Even President Obama hit peak audacity to pen an op-ed telling what the Brits should do. (After all, the political scaffolding depends on it).
No serious analyst would stay there are not intermediate negatives to cutting away from the European Union. However, it would allow Britain to develop economical policies and trade agreements that are in the nation's self-interest and not European bureaucrats. Switzerland, for example, trades directly with the European Union but is not bogged down by member-state regulations.
MacroView does not believe Britain will separate even if there was to be a Brexit vote. The vote will be recast or ignored, and there is clear evidence to support this. In 2005, both France and Netherlands voted against the Union Constitution and the vote was ignored. Ireland voted against the Nice Treaty, and the vote was recast. As early as last year, Greece voted against the Euro Bailout and that was ignored.
What is most troubling is the risk of a Brexit vote, whether ignored or the seldom chance of acceptance. If ignored, it would only fuel political angst against the establishment. It could even spread across the pond.
Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker, currently showing a small Brexit lead.
For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.
Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
Follow MacroView CoFounders on TWTR1.45% @Lemieux_26 and EconomicHedge
First, one must realize that the "leave" component is similar to many political coups that have happened across the global in recent years: those feeling the most economically and politically disenfranchised. Over 50 percent of the "leave" vote, currently polling, are poorer Brits who are less educated and work middle-class working jobs. Conversely, the "remain" vote is primarily those well-off in society and have higher levels of education. It comes down to voting on pure establishment politics.
(We are witnessing the very same thing in the U.S. Presidential Campaign with Donald Trump supporters).
There's no exit in Brexit. The political elite simply will not allow ties to the European Union to be severed. The OECD, Int'l Monetary Fund, World Bank, as well as standing British politicians, embarked on fear-mongering tactics and courted disastrous results to a Brexit vote. Even President Obama hit peak audacity to pen an op-ed telling what the Brits should do. (After all, the political scaffolding depends on it).
No serious analyst would stay there are not intermediate negatives to cutting away from the European Union. However, it would allow Britain to develop economical policies and trade agreements that are in the nation's self-interest and not European bureaucrats. Switzerland, for example, trades directly with the European Union but is not bogged down by member-state regulations.
MacroView does not believe Britain will separate even if there was to be a Brexit vote. The vote will be recast or ignored, and there is clear evidence to support this. In 2005, both France and Netherlands voted against the Union Constitution and the vote was ignored. Ireland voted against the Nice Treaty, and the vote was recast. As early as last year, Greece voted against the Euro Bailout and that was ignored.
What is most troubling is the risk of a Brexit vote, whether ignored or the seldom chance of acceptance. If ignored, it would only fuel political angst against the establishment. It could even spread across the pond.
Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker, currently showing a small Brexit lead.
For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.
Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
Follow MacroView CoFounders on TWTR1.45% @Lemieux_26 and EconomicHedge
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