Long

Updated

GBPUSD about to break to the upside (after a little dip perhaps)

I think we're very close to the top of the current move up, and we'll then see some pullback before heading higher still.

I've used an example from 2020 chart [on the 30m chart] as it lines up perfectly with where we currently are (white arrow).

Below is how I see this playing out:

And here, you can see from a previous reversal on GBPUSD that we drop out and continue heading up:

Right now, I think we won't get much higher (if at all) than the 1.26800 range.

I'll update this post as more ideas/thoughts come in over the next days :)

Thoughts?

Trade active

Just putting the charts side by side (previous pattern in left purple box), this is how I see the move happening over the coming trading days: 

(currently short from 1.26550 until we hit 2 - will be scalping between the numbers basically) 

Note

So it ran up briefly but i'm not too worried and held my position, and here's how I'm seeing things...

One is on the 4hr chart, and then the current one is on the 5m chart.

The patterns line up enough for me to think that we saw the peak yesterday and should start dropping out.

4hr chart:

5m chart:

Note

Hit a good resistance zone, so going to do a quick scalp play on this. Overall target is still a move down to 2 (as in 1 to 2 which I drew on a previous note above - these numbers don't mean anything, it's just an easy way for me to explain where I'm talking about).

Back on LONG at 1.26338 for now to see where it takes me for a quick scalp play (and hopefully it doesn't keep moving down just yet).

Note

I think we've found a bottom for now - I scrapped my scalp playing after one trade (for nothing more than chump change) as I realised it was just going to drip down like GBPUSD does.

Definitely ready to take back a LONG position for a little swing to the upside before more fall out - current entry at 1.26063

The chart below is the game plan for me as it stands (example of a previous "1 to 5" move further down the uptrend highlighted with the blue numbers).

Hopefully the supports/resistances I've marked for this move hold up - I could see this pushing lower than where I've marked 4, but will decide that as we get more chart data in.

For now, happy with this trade so far - let me know if you have any thoughts/ideas/anything I might have missed.

Note

So I don't think this is the run up just yet... it spiked hard today and I was lucky to be on the right side of it (more by fluke, not my analysis) but I think it's going to reject this high and come down.

Could be wrong and this is the move up I've been waiting for though... currently unsure but have decided to take a short position at 1.26844 for now and see where it goes over the next trading day(s). It could still run a little high from where it is now, but I'm not chasing it for now.

If we get down to the 1.25000 range ahead of Friday, I'd like to think that NFP will be our answer to the upside but let's see how the week shapes up first.

Will try to post an explanation on how I missed today's move up, but regardless, it's still coming down IMO.

Note

So we broke above 1.27485 so I'm out of my short for a loss and looks like the rocket I was looking for is happening.

I'd like to see us get up to 1.30000 range now - TSLA did a similar thing and went from 282 to 488, BTC the same (as per example shown in charts above).

Will do some charting when I get some time to show what I mean.

Note

I get that this oversimplifies things, but each time it breaks a triangle, we head up for the next resistance

Here's the same idea compared to how BTC moves and how I'm playing things for now.

Note

Here's how I see the next trading days playing out as it stands

So many supports all meeting at the same point exactly when NFP report will be out... could be nothing but this makes sense to me.

Note

Back on short duties @1.29249

Not confident on the structure on the low timeframes (1m/5m) so thinking some pull back?

Note

So I'm thinking a move down to 1.27900 range for now before further move up.

1.30000+ still on the cards longer term.

[4hr chart idea]

Note

Small time frame idea update...

I'm back on LONG duties from 1.28783

Plan is to keep this a scalp move, and a drop out to 1.28440 range

After that, a move above recent highs of 1.29459 (with an exit plan of around 1.30000 range)

Finishing that move, I'm back on a strong short move because it needs to fall out IMO.

Let me know if I've missed something.

Note

Id be silly not to take the money at this point, even though I think it could pop higher... but I guess more importantly is that I think it's may be running out of juice and the incoming pullback would be a much bigger win not to miss out on.

Here is the chart I posted before and we've reached a good resistance.

For now, back on SHORT duties from 1.29557

Note

Longer than expected consolidation and possibly a few scalp play opportunities missed, but I didn't trust myself to trade anymore on GBPUSD and have just held my short position @1.29557

Current updated idea in chart below (with the real target looking like the bigger of the 2 green circles, much like how TSLA recently crashed out of the sky).

The arrows + A and B marks are just showing the fractal pattern of the same pattern occurring where we are now.

I believe we are at the same point we were last time when we hit B, but we could only be at A and this takes a small dip before ripping a little higher into 1.3000 range.

Either way, I'm sitting this one out until the fall and trading other stocks.

ash4zeker

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

ash4zeker