GBPUSD Range Games, a Trap before the Drop

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The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently flattening out, which indicates that price action is rangebound and lacking clear directional momentum. This kind of consolidation often precedes a significant breakout. Given the current structure, if the price breaks below the range, it would likely initiate a stronger move to the downside.

One key scenario to watch is a potential deviation above the current year’s high. This could be a false breakout where the price briefly moves above resistance, triggers stop-losses from short positions or attracts breakout buyers, and then sharply reverses. Such a move often traps traders on the wrong side, leading to increased volatility and a swift return back into the range.

Another critical level is the Weekly Open. If price falls back below the Weekly Open and is unable to reclaim it, that would signal a shift in sentiment to the downside. In this case, the Weekly Open transitions from potential support to resistance, confirming a bearish bias. On the flip side, if price finds support at the Weekly Open after a pullback and holds above it, this could indicate strength and offer a buying opportunity within the range.

Until there is a decisive break beyond the established range — either to the upside with sustained momentum or to the downside with follow-through — the best approach is to continue trading within the range boundaries. Fade the extremes, manage risk tightly, and remain patient for a clear directional move.

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