🕒 Market Context & Economic Overview
As of March 3, 2025,
GBPUSD is trading around 1.2602, reflecting a slight recovery from recent declines. The British Pound has been under pressure due to mixed economic data from the UK, while the US Dollar remains strong amid Fed's hawkish stance.
UK Economic Indicators: Recent GDP growth figures from the UK showed stagnation, raising concerns about a possible economic slowdown. The BoE's reluctance to cut rates has provided some support for GBP.
US Macro Factors: The latest US jobs report exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates for longer. This has strengthened the USD against major currencies.
Market Sentiment: Investors remain cautious as geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns weigh on risk appetite.
📊 Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Daily Chart (D1) – Medium-Term Trend
Trend: GBP/USD has been in a corrective phase after a strong rally earlier this year.
Resistance Levels: 1.2700 (recent high), 1.2750 (major resistance).
Support Levels: 1.2500 (psychological level), 1.2350 (long-term support).
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 55.27, suggesting neutral momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The histogram is slightly positive, but momentum is fading.
Volume: Increasing on down days, indicating potential weakness ahead.
📌 Key Takeaway: The overall structure suggests a consolidation phase before the next major move. If GBP/USD breaks below 1.2500, a deeper correction is likely.
2️⃣ 4-Hour Chart (H4) – Short-Term Trend
Price Action: GBP/USD recently bounced from 1.2580 but faces resistance near 1.2650.
RSI: 43.91, indicating weak bullish momentum.
MACD: Slightly bearish, suggesting a potential pullback.
📌 Key Takeaway: GBP/USD is struggling to gain upside traction. If price remains below 1.2650, a test of 1.2550 is likely.
3️⃣ 1-Hour Chart (H1) – Intraday Perspective
Short-Term Resistance: 1.2625 (intraday high).
Short-Term Support: 1.2580.
RSI: 49.27, near the neutral zone.
MACD: Slight bullish crossover, but momentum remains weak.
📌 Key Takeaway: The pair is range-bound in the short term. A break above 1.2625 could trigger a move to 1.2650, while a drop below 1.2580 would open the door for 1.2550.
🎯 Trade Strategy & Recommendations
🔹 Buy Setup (Bullish Case):
Entry: Above 1.2625
Stop Loss: 1.2580
Take Profit: 1.2675
🔻 Sell Setup (Bearish Case):
Entry: Below 1.2580
Stop Loss: 1.2625
Take Profit: 1.2525
📌 Risk Management: Given the current market conditions, traders should adopt a cautious stance, keeping tight stop losses and adjusting positions based on price action.
🔥 Final Thoughts & Market Outlook
Short-Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish ⚖️📉
Medium-Term Bias: Consolidation with Downside Risks 🔄
Long-Term Bias: Depends on US Dollar strength & UK macro conditions 🏛️
Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data, particularly US ISM Services PMI and UK Inflation Reports, which could drive volatility in GBP/USD.
As of March 3, 2025,
GBPUSD is trading around 1.2602, reflecting a slight recovery from recent declines. The British Pound has been under pressure due to mixed economic data from the UK, while the US Dollar remains strong amid Fed's hawkish stance.UK Economic Indicators: Recent GDP growth figures from the UK showed stagnation, raising concerns about a possible economic slowdown. The BoE's reluctance to cut rates has provided some support for GBP.
US Macro Factors: The latest US jobs report exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates for longer. This has strengthened the USD against major currencies.
Market Sentiment: Investors remain cautious as geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns weigh on risk appetite.
📊 Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Daily Chart (D1) – Medium-Term Trend
Trend: GBP/USD has been in a corrective phase after a strong rally earlier this year.
Resistance Levels: 1.2700 (recent high), 1.2750 (major resistance).
Support Levels: 1.2500 (psychological level), 1.2350 (long-term support).
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 55.27, suggesting neutral momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The histogram is slightly positive, but momentum is fading.
Volume: Increasing on down days, indicating potential weakness ahead.
📌 Key Takeaway: The overall structure suggests a consolidation phase before the next major move. If GBP/USD breaks below 1.2500, a deeper correction is likely.
2️⃣ 4-Hour Chart (H4) – Short-Term Trend
Price Action: GBP/USD recently bounced from 1.2580 but faces resistance near 1.2650.
RSI: 43.91, indicating weak bullish momentum.
MACD: Slightly bearish, suggesting a potential pullback.
📌 Key Takeaway: GBP/USD is struggling to gain upside traction. If price remains below 1.2650, a test of 1.2550 is likely.
3️⃣ 1-Hour Chart (H1) – Intraday Perspective
Short-Term Resistance: 1.2625 (intraday high).
Short-Term Support: 1.2580.
RSI: 49.27, near the neutral zone.
MACD: Slight bullish crossover, but momentum remains weak.
📌 Key Takeaway: The pair is range-bound in the short term. A break above 1.2625 could trigger a move to 1.2650, while a drop below 1.2580 would open the door for 1.2550.
🎯 Trade Strategy & Recommendations
🔹 Buy Setup (Bullish Case):
Entry: Above 1.2625
Stop Loss: 1.2580
Take Profit: 1.2675
🔻 Sell Setup (Bearish Case):
Entry: Below 1.2580
Stop Loss: 1.2625
Take Profit: 1.2525
📌 Risk Management: Given the current market conditions, traders should adopt a cautious stance, keeping tight stop losses and adjusting positions based on price action.
🔥 Final Thoughts & Market Outlook
Short-Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish ⚖️📉
Medium-Term Bias: Consolidation with Downside Risks 🔄
Long-Term Bias: Depends on US Dollar strength & UK macro conditions 🏛️
Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data, particularly US ISM Services PMI and UK Inflation Reports, which could drive volatility in GBP/USD.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.