GBPUSD → Falling From Resistance! Should We Long or Short??
Updated
GBPUSD touched the Resistance Zone and fell into the 30EMA ribbon, putting a slight pause on the fall. Will the price fall further or are we about to make contact with the Resistance Zone again?
How do we trade this? 🤔
I do not believe a short is reasonable here because we don't have enough bear strength on the chart. Wait for another rejection at Resistance or wait for the price to fall and find support to enter a long. There are two potential long entries, at the Support Zone around 1.21150 and above the current Resistance Zone around 1.29. Both zones need to establish support and show confirmation to justify a long entry. This includes a bull signal bar closing on or near its high followed by a strong bull candle closing on or near its high.
Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for a better opportunity!
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Long Entry: 1.21150
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.18650
✅ Take Profit: 1.26150
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long Entry: 1.29000
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.26450
✅ Take Profit: 1.34100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Macro Trend is Bearish, Use Caution at Weekly 200EMA.
3. If in Short Position, hold until Support Zone.
4. If not in a Position, Wait until Support to Long.
5. RSI near 53.00 under Moving Average, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
How do we trade this? 🤔
I do not believe a short is reasonable here because we don't have enough bear strength on the chart. Wait for another rejection at Resistance or wait for the price to fall and find support to enter a long. There are two potential long entries, at the Support Zone around 1.21150 and above the current Resistance Zone around 1.29. Both zones need to establish support and show confirmation to justify a long entry. This includes a bull signal bar closing on or near its high followed by a strong bull candle closing on or near its high.
Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for a better opportunity!
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Long Entry: 1.21150
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.18650
✅ Take Profit: 1.26150
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long Entry: 1.29000
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.26450
✅ Take Profit: 1.34100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Macro Trend is Bearish, Use Caution at Weekly 200EMA.
3. If in Short Position, hold until Support Zone.
4. If not in a Position, Wait until Support to Long.
5. RSI near 53.00 under Moving Average, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Note
We've entered the Resistance Zone and closed out last week with a strong bear candle closing on its low near the bottom. We're still in the same spot as last week; we need to wait for a break above the Resistance Zone and wait for confirmation of Support above it before entering a long. Or we need to wait for a hard rejection at this price level to prepare for a short to the Support Zone near 1.21. The short should be positioned as a scalp initially, but 1:2 Risk/Reward is reasonable until the chart gives us a reason to exit early.
More updates to come as they unfold!
Note
GBPUSD has yet to breakout of the Weekly 200EMA and has been sideways for the last two weekly candle closes. We're still in the same situation as the initial analysis; we need a breakout of the Resistance Zone, a strong bull candle close about the 200EMA, a retest of the Resistance Zone, and a bull signal to justify a long.
Since we haven't closed above the Resistance Zone, there is still the possibility of a dive back down toward the Support Zone. It can be reasonable to short that dive on smaller timeframes, maybe even on this weekly chart since the macro-trend is bearish, but I would be looking for a long given the massive buy signal bar to our left followed by a good strong confirmation bar and a trading range. Our bias ought to be long for the time being until we get some good sell pressure in the trading range.
Note
GPBUSD is inching closer to the top of the Resistance Zone. It's possible we'll see our move this week though I suspect volume will be relatively low given the holiday week. We're currently in a bull channel and until we breakout into a trading range or the downside, expect a break above resistance and a retest of resistance as support. We can make out long move if the proper conditions as described in my initial analysis are met.
-Joe Dean
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