GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up
Updated
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has surged against the US Dollar even in the face of all components of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls data for December surpassing expectations, indicating improved market risk appetite. However, the GBP's strong position may not last as investors anticipate tough decisions for Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, who are facing recession risks and high inflation.
The UK economy is at risk of entering a technical recession, with a contraction in the third quarter and a projected stagnant performance in the final quarter. The manufacturing sector is also struggling due to high interest rates. As a result, the outlook for the GBP/USD pair has dimmed, as US employment indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate guidance.
In this video, we'll delve into the strategic positioning we're considering to navigate the uncertainties and potential shifts in the GBP/USD pair. Join the discussion as we analyze the factors shaping the currency pair's trajectory in the near term.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.27200 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.26150 and $1.28200 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
The UK economy is at risk of entering a technical recession, with a contraction in the third quarter and a projected stagnant performance in the final quarter. The manufacturing sector is also struggling due to high interest rates. As a result, the outlook for the GBP/USD pair has dimmed, as US employment indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate guidance.
In this video, we'll delve into the strategic positioning we're considering to navigate the uncertainties and potential shifts in the GBP/USD pair. Join the discussion as we analyze the factors shaping the currency pair's trajectory in the near term.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.27200 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.26150 and $1.28200 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Note
The GBP/USD appears to be hitting the brakes on its recent three-day winning streak, entering a consolidation phase during the Asian session.At this juncture, the GBP/USD pair stands at a critical point, teetering on the edge of a potential break below the psychological support level at $1.27000. The GBP faces the risk of selling pressure fueled by a pessimistic economic outlook, and a breach below this key support zone could exert downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
To navigate these pivotal moments, market participants will keenly watch for insights from the upcoming British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales report scheduled for Tuesday, and Manufacturing Production data due on Friday. These releases are expected to provide fresh impetus and clarity on the UK's economic landscape.
In light of these developments, we've identified new levels on the chart that will act as guiding lights for our trading decisions. As we await the upcoming economic indicators, these identified levels will play a crucial role in shaping our strategies and responses to potential market shifts.
Good Morning
Note
The Pound Sterling appears to be facing pressure due to a shift in market sentiment and demand tendencies for the US Dollar. This is driven by evolving risk sentiment and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions. Despite this, the GBP/USD saw some deep buying during the Asian trading session. Investors are currently factoring in a 62% likelihood of rate cuts at the upcoming March meeting, as indicated by the CME Fedwatch tool. Additionally, remarks made by Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic suggest that inflation in the United States has decreased more than initially anticipated.On the other side of the pond, former Bank of England monetary policy committee member DeAnne Julius expressed the view that the central bank will not be in a position to commence interest rate cuts in 2024. Julius also highlighted the potential for escalating tensions in the Middle East to lead to a new round of energy price increases, potentially resulting in a fresh inflationary shock. Looking ahead, upcoming economic indicators from both economies later in the week are expected to drive price action. As the market awaits these developments, it is advisable to safeguard all current buy positions while remaining alert for new trading opportunities.
Good Morning.
Note
Our new guide for GBPUSD is illustrated below... Let's consider some confirmations before joining a bearish move.Note
GBP/USD is grappling to regain ground around 1.2700 in the Asian session, facing headwinds from risk-off market sentiment and a recent upswing in the US Dollar. The risk-on mood sparked by speculations of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, as indicated by Federal Reserve (Fed) members, has exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar. Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic, citing a more significant decline in inflation, suggested the possibility of two quarter-point cuts by the close of 2024.Adding to the narrative, US Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman stated that while the current policy stance seems adequately restrictive, there might be a need to lower the Fed's policy rate if inflation approaches the 2% target. Eyes are now on BoE Governor Bailey's testimony later in the day for potential cues.
The question lingers: Can the Pound Sterling (GBP) find support against the US Dollar today? As price action remains above the breached descending trendline from Monday, the necessity for a compelling bearish signal becomes paramount before considering any new sell positions. Detailed insights into this scenario will be discussed in our upcoming live session.
Good Morning
Trade active
It's time to protect all buy positions as the Pound Sterling extends its gain during the Asian trading session. The weaker US Dollar and increased risk appetite in the market are helping the pair to gain value. Yesterday, the New York Federal Reserve President Williams mentioned that US interest rates will need to stay high "for some time" until the central bank is confident that inflation will return to the 2% target. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey didn't comment on interest rates but emphasized the need to bring down inflation and expressed hope for continued lower mortgage costs. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD bullish trend remains intact from the perspective of the higher timeframes. Consequently, we will secure our current buying positions and be on standby for new trading opportunities as the market focuses on the upcoming December US inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh impetus.
Good Morning
Trade closed manually
Price action reversed its direction and declined toward 1.2700 [the area we identified this morning as a strong demand zone] as the CPI data surpassed the market expectation. I still think the market structure retains some bullish underlying trend momentum and holds the tendency to go upside down. However, a breakdown/retest of the key level at the 1.27200 may welcome selling opportunities [a breakdown has already happened].Note
Highlighting the prevailing market indecision, the GBP/USD is trading within a range above 1.27650 during the Asian session, with the market carefully digesting recent economic data.In positive news from the UK, the industrial sector rebounded in November, and the monthly real GDP expanded by 0.3%, while yearly Industrial Production saw a slight contraction of 0.1%.
On the USD front, the latest US inflation reports present a potential challenge to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) plans for interest rate cuts this year. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations in December, rising by 3.4% YoY, compared to the 3.1% increase in the previous month. This development may exert pressure on the upward trajectory of the Pound Sterling.
Considering these dynamics, it is prudent to safeguard the current buy positions while remaining vigilant for new trading opportunities. Market participants will closely monitor the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) from the US docket, anticipating fresh impetus for potential market movements.
Good Morning
Trade smart. Trade consciously
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