Technical Analysis Summary (Multi-Timeframe View)
Price Structure & Patterns
Higher lows since April 8th = bullish market structure
Several bullish candles (belt-hold, closing marubozu, doji on higher TF) suggest momentum shift upward
The bearish harami on the 30-min adds caution — likely short-term consolidation, not reversal
Support & Resistance Zones
Support: 1.2785–1.2800 (prior rejection zone + buyer defense)
Current minor resistance: 1.2845–1.2855 (hit twice recently — strong short-term cap)
Next real resistance: 1.2890–1.2915 (April 7–8 highs)
Major resistance: 1.2935–1.2950 (where sellers aggressively capped rallies on April 7)
Indicators of Note
RSI on 1H = 72.56 → approaching overbought, which aligns with current resistance
MACD on 4H is positive = bullish momentum, though 1H MACD is nearly flat → move is maturing
ADX 1H = 44 → Strong trend
ATR 1H = 0.00358 (≈ 36 pips) → Expect that kind of volatility range
Fundamentals
April 9 FOMC Minutes: Hawkish
USD strength likely to return soon, but it hasn't crushed GBP yet.
April 10 CPI (coming up soon):
Expectations are slightly soft: CPI 2.6% vs previous 2.8%, Core CPI flat
If CPI misses → dollar weakens, GBP/USD rallies to next resistance
If CPI beats → USD strengthens, GBP/USD pullback likely
April 11 UK GDP and Trade
GDP expected positive (from -0.17% to +0.1%) → could support GBP
Option 1: Conservative TP (Safe Profit Lock-In)
TP1: 1.2860 = Just under current resistance
It's been tested a few times and could act as a double top if CPI hits strong.
Option 2: Moderate-Aggressive TP (Event Risk Carry)
TP2: 1.2870–1.2915 = Next resistance zone, April 7–8 top
Bullish structure + current momentum could extend if CPI is dollar-negative (inflation soft).
Good night everyone!
Price Structure & Patterns
Higher lows since April 8th = bullish market structure
Several bullish candles (belt-hold, closing marubozu, doji on higher TF) suggest momentum shift upward
The bearish harami on the 30-min adds caution — likely short-term consolidation, not reversal
Support & Resistance Zones
Support: 1.2785–1.2800 (prior rejection zone + buyer defense)
Current minor resistance: 1.2845–1.2855 (hit twice recently — strong short-term cap)
Next real resistance: 1.2890–1.2915 (April 7–8 highs)
Major resistance: 1.2935–1.2950 (where sellers aggressively capped rallies on April 7)
Indicators of Note
RSI on 1H = 72.56 → approaching overbought, which aligns with current resistance
MACD on 4H is positive = bullish momentum, though 1H MACD is nearly flat → move is maturing
ADX 1H = 44 → Strong trend
ATR 1H = 0.00358 (≈ 36 pips) → Expect that kind of volatility range
Fundamentals
April 9 FOMC Minutes: Hawkish
USD strength likely to return soon, but it hasn't crushed GBP yet.
April 10 CPI (coming up soon):
Expectations are slightly soft: CPI 2.6% vs previous 2.8%, Core CPI flat
If CPI misses → dollar weakens, GBP/USD rallies to next resistance
If CPI beats → USD strengthens, GBP/USD pullback likely
April 11 UK GDP and Trade
GDP expected positive (from -0.17% to +0.1%) → could support GBP
Option 1: Conservative TP (Safe Profit Lock-In)
TP1: 1.2860 = Just under current resistance
It's been tested a few times and could act as a double top if CPI hits strong.
Option 2: Moderate-Aggressive TP (Event Risk Carry)
TP2: 1.2870–1.2915 = Next resistance zone, April 7–8 top
Bullish structure + current momentum could extend if CPI is dollar-negative (inflation soft).
Good night everyone!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.