GC1! Gold Futures Analysis:
Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark.
Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes.
On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart.
Key Levels:
• ATH: 3201.6
• HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115
• LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1
• Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 1:
• Entry: 3095.1
• Stop: 3125
• Target: 3018
• Risk: 29.9 points
• Reward : 77.1 points
• Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 2:
• Entry: 3115
• Stop: 3095
• Target: 3200
• Risk : 20 points
• Reward : 85 points
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.