Long

Cup and Handle Breakout on $GLD $GDX #GOLD

Updated

It is difficult to see the handle, but it there. I consider it an accelerated form of a handle given the crazy volume and price action during the virus outbreak. If 2009 - 2011 are any clue, then bonds should start dropping with interest rates and inflation expectations rising. This should boost gold. Remember that we have had some massive blocks over the previous sessions.

VOL (K) | PRICE ($) | 🔼
--------.-----------.----------
📈
--------.--(APR07)--.----------
7,000 | 15.79 | 💚 +1.99%

There was a 7 million market buy block on April 7th for IAU, absolutely incredible. This has the juice to move the price to gold 200-300 points, which is in line with the measured move for a cup and handle formation.

thepatternsite.com/cup.html

Note

If you look back to the peak of the financial meldown, in October 2008 everything got sold including bonds and gold. This is exactly what we had again in 2020. After that gold started gaining ahead of the ultimate stock market bottom in March 2009.

The March month candle for gold is a giant doji candle with high volume, we are at the highs of that now for spot gold, and above for futures.

I am very bullish on gold.

Note

SUN APR 12 market update: youtube.com/watch?v=EQx7mAke2R4

Note

Zoom to minute 46:30 for gold update.

Note

Gold futures reclaim the SEP 2012 close. Great.

Note

Unprcedented number of block trades today APR 13. Bullish above them. We are quite far above the original 7 million live market buy block on APR 7.

VOL (K) | PRICE ($) | 🔼
--------.-----------.----------
📈
--------.--(APR13)--.----------
500 | 16.48 | 💔 -0.61%
2,500 | 16.47 | 💔 -0.55%
2,000 | 16.46 | 💔 -0.49%
1,021 | 16.45 | 💔 -0.43%
500 | 16.44 | 💔 -0.36%
1,000 | 16.42 | 💔 -0.24%
500 | 16.41 | 💔 -0.18%
500 | 16.39 | 💛 -0.06%
2,200 | 16.38 | 💛 0.00%
500 | 16.36 | 💛 +0.12%
1,800 | 16.35 | 💚 +0.18%
1,100 | 16.34 | 💚 +0.24%
500 | 16.32 | 💚 +0.37%
1,000 | 16.22 | 💚 +0.99%
500 | 16.21 | 💚 +1.05%
2,000 | 16.20 | 💚 +1.11%
--------.--(APR07)--.----------
7,000 | 15.79 | 💚 +3.74%

Note

Nice rejection of SEP 2012 close and daily CAM R4, Weekly CAM R3. Expecting a pullback to 1720-1740 area. tradingview.com/chart/Gx06WwYh/

Note

Bounce from 50% pitchfork trendline. Back in long to 1725 Week CAM R3.

Note

Gold Month Camarilla R3 backtest (with a tag on S3 Week) complete here. I am rebuying at 1666.

Note

Looks great so far, 1725 target @ Week CAM R3, the opposite side of this trade.

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Another target reached, this was a scalp from Week S3 to Week R3 Camarilla. The yellow dots are the 200 SMA on H1.

Note

We could see a dip down now after the Month CAM R4 retest is complete. I am not sure if this head/shoulders top is real but if it is the next step would be to fall back to the March close near 1590 - 1600. This is the measured move target for a head/shoulders top, and also the correct move after the Camarilla pivot sequence we just witnessed.

Note

Little wavy on the actual performance YTD, however the seasonal trend in yellow shows that little baby pop to the FOMC statement before it drifts lower into late May. This year could be different though.

Live block on GLD is significant, you don't see 400k very often. If this is a buy (seems that way so far) it could be in anticipation of the FOMC statement 1 week from today on APR 29.

ETF Blocks
📈 🥇 #Gold
📊 400,000
💵 160.85
💛 +0.09 | +0.06%

Levels
📈
🧮 1731.30
📈
🧮 1709.59

Note

Lovely camarilla trading on gold.

Note

We could be witnessing the start of the same decoupling process of gold and the rest of the stock market right now. Gold is getting bought despite the stock market failing today with a big top in NASDAQ.

This happened about 45 days after the initial bottom in OCT 2008 with Lehman, everything got sold including bonds and gold. After that everything ran together in parallel for the most part as all the same assets were bought back. Eventually SPX started diving to new lows in March 2009 while gold continued higher with QE1 released in November 2008.

Note

Gold performance against 10 year seasonality in 2009. The APR FOMC resulted in an immediate buy back of gold into June.

Note

Get ready for a big move for the next 20-30 days.

Note

So far equities are obeying seasonality with a top on the APR FOMC. Gold usually lags this by 2 days then the correlation disappears with gold buying into May 25 and equity selling into May 25. Target remains August 2011 close way up near 1830 or the Month Camarilla R4

Note

We positioned all longs under 1700 and are now letting the trade ride after breaking the wedge with volume this week. The triangle measured move target is right around the previous September 2012 close area. I will dump some of the long again at that location.

Note

Gold futures struck the 1775 target and Weekly CAM R3. I am back in long again at the weekly CAM S3 hit on FX:XAUUSD spot. This entire selloff could potentially be some sort of Wedge breakout throwback/backtest.

Note

I do believe we had a "near miss" wedge backtest on gold spot. Weekly Camarilla S3, Weekly Pivot, and 55 hour donchian close channel (blue channel) made this a super profitable long.

Note

We are heading into a seasonal strong time for the summer for gold. Nice move today in quad witching. XAUEUR explodes.

Weekly CAM S3 to Weekly CAM R3 move this week. Great.

mortdiggiddy

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