I need investing in gold for diversifying my long term portfolio, but:
High inverse correlation between gold and US real interest rate. If US real interest rate up, gold is down
US real interest rate is at a botton of rectangular pattern and could be technicaly raising.
US real interest rate could be raising by these fundamentals also:
US real interest rate is Bond 10 Years Yield (US10Y) minus the expect inflation to be in the next 10 years (T10YIE)
US10Y is lossing an avarage of 2% since 1980 but FED will increase interest rates (USINTR) in small steps (USINTR decennal trendline drawn in the chart could help). So
US10Y could be raising in the short-middle term and also US real interest rate consequencly
Last check the Inflation rate is at max level since 1982 so it could be down in the short-middle term (FED could help on this with increasing of rates).
This also could contribute with the short-middle term rasing of US real interest rate.
For these reasons I think is not a good entry point now for investing in gold for long term. Just I wait a little and stay tuned on these charts for a better entry
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.