Gold FuturesLong
XAUUSD - Gold long term
We're looking at GC1!, front contract of the gold futures (CME).
Purely technical, it looks like market is coiling for a break of 1360-1375 resistance area.
- Looking at VPVR. We tested upper bound, moved back. Bounced of off center high-volume node, and are now working towards higher bound again.
- Open Interest rising on the move up. Both the Quarterly contracts as well as the CTFC running total. Indicating a strengthening rally.
- CTFT COT - Non commercials positioning is 33k net long. (Z-score 1Y: 0.55x. 3Y:-0.70X). Max long reported in 3Y history is ±287k. No extreme positioning there. (= more room to rally)
- Volume is good, moving up, but we'll need high-volume confirmation when we truly break out.
- DeMark Resistance on the weekly (RED, established mid-April) is ±1334, we'll need a weekly close above that to invalidate that resistance. Next one up is 1371, established in Sept '17.
Targets (within a year):
$1430 &
$1480 &
$1580 &
$1630
Fundamentals for gold look even better.
- Restricted supply (little new mines being opened), whilst increasing demand (Central banks stockpiling, and smart money accumulating).
- Global growth slowdown.
- Discussions about MMT, monetizing national debt by Central Banks whilst governments targeting the inflation.
- Increasing volatility / geo-political tensions.
- Gold is openly being criticized by the crypto community (archaic), laughed at by most economists (barbaric relic of the past), and the larger investment community. Billionaires like Sam Zeller, Ray Dalio (through his Bridge Water fund), Naguib Sawiris, Thomas Kaplan etc however are buying. Ask yourself, who'd you rather follow?
It's THE most obvious medium/long term trade out there.
Purely technical, it looks like market is coiling for a break of 1360-1375 resistance area.
- Looking at VPVR. We tested upper bound, moved back. Bounced of off center high-volume node, and are now working towards higher bound again.
- Open Interest rising on the move up. Both the Quarterly contracts as well as the CTFC running total. Indicating a strengthening rally.
- CTFT COT - Non commercials positioning is 33k net long. (Z-score 1Y: 0.55x. 3Y:-0.70X). Max long reported in 3Y history is ±287k. No extreme positioning there. (= more room to rally)
- Volume is good, moving up, but we'll need high-volume confirmation when we truly break out.
- DeMark Resistance on the weekly (RED, established mid-April) is ±1334, we'll need a weekly close above that to invalidate that resistance. Next one up is 1371, established in Sept '17.
Targets (within a year):
$1430 &
$1480 &
$1580 &
$1630
Fundamentals for gold look even better.
- Restricted supply (little new mines being opened), whilst increasing demand (Central banks stockpiling, and smart money accumulating).
- Global growth slowdown.
- Discussions about MMT, monetizing national debt by Central Banks whilst governments targeting the inflation.
- Increasing volatility / geo-political tensions.
- Gold is openly being criticized by the crypto community (archaic), laughed at by most economists (barbaric relic of the past), and the larger investment community. Billionaires like Sam Zeller, Ray Dalio (through his Bridge Water fund), Naguib Sawiris, Thomas Kaplan etc however are buying. Ask yourself, who'd you rather follow?
It's THE most obvious medium/long term trade out there.
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