9/5/24 - $gbtc - too close for missiles... 50% position.
9/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
GDLC
too close for missiles... 50% position.
- i've been 30-40% size, tip toe stuff. as some of you have deduced, i am deep in the weeds on how this industry works. not the TA bs. the under pinnings. and if i had to distill the problem (and continues to be a problem) with bitcoin in one sentence it's this:
hashprice is hitting all time lows and going lower
data.hashrateindex.com/chart/bitcoin-hashprice-index
- public mining co's basically are using the dumb money (that's what we call retail on wallstreet) as their piggy bank to finance larger and larger swaths of exahash pull forward and to communicate bigger and bigger guidance of exahash growth. that's the game.
- why is it the game? because simply put... mgmt of these "companies" (quotations should be triple) are incentivized by higher stonk price. stonk price is being rewarded by apes looking to value on exahash and growth of exahash. it's as dumb money as you get. so they out compete each other to basically win on both these fronts. they issue more and more shares at your dilution expense to communicate this very very economically unsustainably goal.
- guess what fam? it works until it doesn't. and Bitcoin WILL FIX THIS, but it means very likely lower bitcoin price or at the VERY minimum much lower mining stonks price. my guess is both.
- but what's the lower price? do we get to ETF lows? maybe yes. i've talked about this.
- but GDLC is now at a 38% discount to spot. it's mostly bitcoin. i've written about this extensively. you basically get BTC at 35k at today's $17.5 ish levels.
- so no more time for missiles switching to guns as the top gunna says. 50% position.
- as a portfolio review, bc i've also written about NXT and CELH recently, i've moved half my size to 10/18C's to free up some capital (and still carry a healthy 25% cash balance) into uncharted economic territory.
- i think mkt will be GREEN tmr on a totally fake but nonetheless "true" jobs report that will be worse than if the 2020 election were fake and worse than if we were lied to about one step for mankind. and the mkts are gonna love love this. the hard landing is already happening folks. have you not seen these stonk prices? unlike other economic "crashes" each of these stonks has crashed at different times. it doesn't show up in the index. look
TSLA is up a lot in the last 2 days. it helps the index. you don't notice these things, but the machines do. they manage the index. the INDEX IS NOT REAL.
- so how about deez nuts. how bout deez apples?
GDLC represents both a HEDGE (bc of the discount) and LEVERAGE (because of the discount) and DIVERSIFICATION (hello alt season) ALL IN ONE. you just have to take the time to look at this thing. this isn't something you buy to sell tmr. you need to time entries better than anything bc of it's liquidity. that's also the upside. it's NOT well known.
so. let's keep our heads on. last few days have sucked. but we've been here before. we will be here again. tomorrow's not promised (and i mean that in a very real way) so let's be kind to those around us.
tell your wife, your kid(s), your friends you love them.
we will make it. and we will do it gracefully.
tomorrow might not be the bottom, but today's not the end and neither is tomorrow.
let's do this.
V
GDLCtoo close for missiles... 50% position.
- i've been 30-40% size, tip toe stuff. as some of you have deduced, i am deep in the weeds on how this industry works. not the TA bs. the under pinnings. and if i had to distill the problem (and continues to be a problem) with bitcoin in one sentence it's this:
hashprice is hitting all time lows and going lower
data.hashrateindex.com/chart/bitcoin-hashprice-index
- public mining co's basically are using the dumb money (that's what we call retail on wallstreet) as their piggy bank to finance larger and larger swaths of exahash pull forward and to communicate bigger and bigger guidance of exahash growth. that's the game.
- why is it the game? because simply put... mgmt of these "companies" (quotations should be triple) are incentivized by higher stonk price. stonk price is being rewarded by apes looking to value on exahash and growth of exahash. it's as dumb money as you get. so they out compete each other to basically win on both these fronts. they issue more and more shares at your dilution expense to communicate this very very economically unsustainably goal.
- guess what fam? it works until it doesn't. and Bitcoin WILL FIX THIS, but it means very likely lower bitcoin price or at the VERY minimum much lower mining stonks price. my guess is both.
- but what's the lower price? do we get to ETF lows? maybe yes. i've talked about this.
- but GDLC is now at a 38% discount to spot. it's mostly bitcoin. i've written about this extensively. you basically get BTC at 35k at today's $17.5 ish levels.
- so no more time for missiles switching to guns as the top gunna says. 50% position.
- as a portfolio review, bc i've also written about NXT and CELH recently, i've moved half my size to 10/18C's to free up some capital (and still carry a healthy 25% cash balance) into uncharted economic territory.
- i think mkt will be GREEN tmr on a totally fake but nonetheless "true" jobs report that will be worse than if the 2020 election were fake and worse than if we were lied to about one step for mankind. and the mkts are gonna love love this. the hard landing is already happening folks. have you not seen these stonk prices? unlike other economic "crashes" each of these stonks has crashed at different times. it doesn't show up in the index. look
TSLA is up a lot in the last 2 days. it helps the index. you don't notice these things, but the machines do. they manage the index. the INDEX IS NOT REAL. - so how about deez nuts. how bout deez apples?
GDLC represents both a HEDGE (bc of the discount) and LEVERAGE (because of the discount) and DIVERSIFICATION (hello alt season) ALL IN ONE. you just have to take the time to look at this thing. this isn't something you buy to sell tmr. you need to time entries better than anything bc of it's liquidity. that's also the upside. it's NOT well known.
so. let's keep our heads on. last few days have sucked. but we've been here before. we will be here again. tomorrow's not promised (and i mean that in a very real way) so let's be kind to those around us.
tell your wife, your kid(s), your friends you love them.
we will make it. and we will do it gracefully.
tomorrow might not be the bottom, but today's not the end and neither is tomorrow.
let's do this.
V
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