Gdx is a long term winner
Forget about the noise, we are in a multiyear gold bull market.
Few people realize how big this gold bull run can be:
- No alternative assets as fixed income is yielding negative rates and central banks can not increase them or everything will fall apart. Just bitcoin could compete with gold but it is a much smaller market.
- All countries have huge amount of debts impossible to repay (US, Europe, China, Japan, Emerging).
- dollar collapsing
- a reform of the monetary and financial system in the coming years.
- new players buying gold (pension funds)
- current gold market cap is 2 trillion vs equity 100 trillion, which is 2%. If investors start including gold in their portfolios, just a 5% would double the price, a 10% would 5x. Gold can go to 4000$ easily. Miners would be more profitable than tech and Gdx achieving 140-150$ in this scenario is even conservative.
- shake out in march confirms this multiyear market and strong hands will want to 5x or 10x their bet in the coming years. Observe this shake out is pretty similar to that of 2009, but just look at how huge volume is this time, meaning bull run will be much bigger.
- 2023-2024 is the timeframe for gdx going to 120-140$. Thats 3x from current levels without leverage.
Expect volatility in the coming months and buy on every pullback. I expect a pullback to 39-40$ level in September, but could go as low as 36$ if dollar gets stronger. Accumulate at those levels.
Few people realize how big this gold bull run can be:
- No alternative assets as fixed income is yielding negative rates and central banks can not increase them or everything will fall apart. Just bitcoin could compete with gold but it is a much smaller market.
- All countries have huge amount of debts impossible to repay (US, Europe, China, Japan, Emerging).
- dollar collapsing
- a reform of the monetary and financial system in the coming years.
- new players buying gold (pension funds)
- current gold market cap is 2 trillion vs equity 100 trillion, which is 2%. If investors start including gold in their portfolios, just a 5% would double the price, a 10% would 5x. Gold can go to 4000$ easily. Miners would be more profitable than tech and Gdx achieving 140-150$ in this scenario is even conservative.
- shake out in march confirms this multiyear market and strong hands will want to 5x or 10x their bet in the coming years. Observe this shake out is pretty similar to that of 2009, but just look at how huge volume is this time, meaning bull run will be much bigger.
- 2023-2024 is the timeframe for gdx going to 120-140$. Thats 3x from current levels without leverage.
Expect volatility in the coming months and buy on every pullback. I expect a pullback to 39-40$ level in September, but could go as low as 36$ if dollar gets stronger. Accumulate at those levels.
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