Miners need more consolidation before taking off from wedge
Updated
I don't think it's quite their time yet, I see a fall, a month of meandering, before launching and hitting my green target.
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I like to use RSI 21 to get tops. I see a retracement for Gold until getting nuked into orbit following the FED emergency cutting rates due to some exogenous event.
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Bearish MACD crossover has happened 3x since 2011 and has cratered everytime since!
x.com/InvestingAngles/status/1798203165361442927
Miners will follow lower
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Weird if this closed at -6.66Note
x.com/CyclesFan/status/1799171493810868734"
GDX - In the last 3 years every time it closed below the 10 week MA in Q2 it dropped into late September or early October. Since there's an FOMC next week a bullish reversal can't be ruled out yet, but if it breaks below 32.20 it will probably be lights out until the end of Q3."
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Interesting perspective (literally)x.com/GoldnGuitars/status/1799171361493160388
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'Yes, down to the fourth floor please, thank you...'
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Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.
Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).
I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.
I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.
I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!
Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.
If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver
EXK which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.Note
Gonna dump!
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