GER30 Long
Updated
My opinion - these days the stalemate in American politics will reject again the healthcare reform . So :
1) dax has already fall as this healthcare bill will not pass .
2) dji has risen like this healthcare bill will pass so when it don't pass then dji will fall .
the fall in dji will be big : already dji has 300pips more compared with dax . but this fall
in dji will drag dax too at least a little more down so dji will have to recuperate even more .
Conclusion. Healthcare bill is delayed after 4 July. So in few days it will be retracted/delayed again ,
so tax reform delayed too , then dji/dax will fall more than 300pips dji and 100pips dax .
But that fall can be huge like 1000pips dji and 700dax .
GER30 Long for a wile - as you know that THEY are doing everything on the brink or on the edge .
so until the last moment the things will go as nothing will come or in the opposite way .
therefore for the moment dji/dax/cac... will go up . :)
1) dax has already fall as this healthcare bill will not pass .
2) dji has risen like this healthcare bill will pass so when it don't pass then dji will fall .
the fall in dji will be big : already dji has 300pips more compared with dax . but this fall
in dji will drag dax too at least a little more down so dji will have to recuperate even more .
Conclusion. Healthcare bill is delayed after 4 July. So in few days it will be retracted/delayed again ,
so tax reform delayed too , then dji/dax will fall more than 300pips dji and 100pips dax .
But that fall can be huge like 1000pips dji and 700dax .
GER30 Long for a wile - as you know that THEY are doing everything on the brink or on the edge .
so until the last moment the things will go as nothing will come or in the opposite way .
therefore for the moment dji/dax/cac... will go up . :)
Note
After 4 July I will wait news on healthcare bill, looking to go Short .Note
As expected market is standing still until after 4 July . Yet dax has risen ~30pips and dow ~50pips.Trade closed: stop reached
exit on break evenTrade closed: target reached
hahah - tp1 reached if not reset stop loss on break even ... :(Trade closed: stop reached
I'm out on earlier break even ... :(Order cancelled
dow30 or dji is unbelievable it has gone up 200pips today , and that alone with no similar move in cac/dax... !moved to short dji but until now some losses .
Trade closed manually
I've been so sure that dji is too high that I was all in so earned 25% in that stroke .Trade active
now long again for at least 50pips sl 20pipsNote
cause fall back again at 12407 now long again tp 14463 sl 12395 (trailing sl) .sl already moved to break even as I wrote this .
Trade closed: target reached
now I'm short cause of the down spike in oil after Putin comment (no more additional cut in oil production) .sl already moved to break even as I wrote this . use tight sl in this jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
Trade active
now I'm short cause of the down spike in oil after Putin comment (no more additional cut in oil production) . tp 12390 (3 July minimum) trailing sl 14pips .sl already moved to small profit as I wrote this . use tight and trailing sl in this
jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
Trade closed: stop reached
closed w small profitNote
Hmm.. it seams that either dax will go up or dji down to close the gap between them .That gap is around 250pips from last 2 weeks till now on top of an older gap of another 200pips (from april to july) .
Take account that (on average over long period) both are correlated : direct with oil and inverse with gold .
Also eurusd is correlated : inverse with oil and direct with gold . (vice versa)
So, dax and dji are inverse correlated with eurusd too .
But again on average and on big period . On small period those can move synchronous or not .
Yet oil has gone down a lot today so I'm bearish especially for dji since from 20June2017 : dax has already gone down and dji up .
but that seams to be related w healcare bill and tax reform in us (so dji up , but why only dji and dax not) .
My opinion : us politics seams to be in stalemate so those reform will not come this year (at least) .
But market can move like a fly in a windshield or even worse moving in the opposite way even after hitting the wall .
Yet I can't think like a Martian cause I don't know how he think . So from the above reasons I'm looking to short dji .
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