The BEAR is back 4
The market seems to be chopping everyone to death. There have been some wild seas ever since the mini-crash which shaved more than 2000 dax points.
So far the idea that we started a bear market is alive and well. The current wave, presumably a 4, is doing it's job of being unpredictable, which combined with the assumed bear market rally makes it very difficult to trade short term.
As previously warned the peak of the bounce so far hadn't stopped at a precise Fib level and that provided some heads-up that it might not be complete. We corrected from there and retraced almost 50%, which coincided with the 0,236 Fib level of the entire wave down, and then bounced hard again. We cannot be certain that the 4 is not in, however given the structure it is more probable that it will finish higher. I expect the previous peak to be taken out and the 4 to peak either at the 50% Fib level or, my perfect world target at the confluence of the 0,618 and the descending trendline. Of course, if the market moves past that and breaks the low of 1, that would invalidate the current count and the assumption that a new bear market has started.
The current preferred count and expectation that the 4th wave still has some way to go lines up well with the projections from mcm. If you didn't get a chance to check out the article, you definitely should.
mcm-ct.com/blog/projections-suggest-a-significant-turn-in-september/
Also more good news for ST traders. I spoke with the administrators of mcm and they are planning to complete a set of tools for ST trading for dax. So far that set is available only for the US indices ES and YM. I will be looking fwd to test those.
Good luck out there!
So far the idea that we started a bear market is alive and well. The current wave, presumably a 4, is doing it's job of being unpredictable, which combined with the assumed bear market rally makes it very difficult to trade short term.
As previously warned the peak of the bounce so far hadn't stopped at a precise Fib level and that provided some heads-up that it might not be complete. We corrected from there and retraced almost 50%, which coincided with the 0,236 Fib level of the entire wave down, and then bounced hard again. We cannot be certain that the 4 is not in, however given the structure it is more probable that it will finish higher. I expect the previous peak to be taken out and the 4 to peak either at the 50% Fib level or, my perfect world target at the confluence of the 0,618 and the descending trendline. Of course, if the market moves past that and breaks the low of 1, that would invalidate the current count and the assumption that a new bear market has started.
The current preferred count and expectation that the 4th wave still has some way to go lines up well with the projections from mcm. If you didn't get a chance to check out the article, you definitely should.
mcm-ct.com/blog/projections-suggest-a-significant-turn-in-september/
Also more good news for ST traders. I spoke with the administrators of mcm and they are planning to complete a set of tools for ST trading for dax. So far that set is available only for the US indices ES and YM. I will be looking fwd to test those.
Good luck out there!
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