The Germany 40 index has been on a wild ride in the first 4+ months of 2025 as European equity markets have reaped the benefits of a shift out of US assets, an expected major spending up lift by European governments on defence and more importantly for the Germany 40 specifically, a commitment by the country’s lawmakers to lift the debt break, which is expected to unleash billions of EUROs of spending on infrastructure projects moving forward.
This all saw the Germany 40 index climb from 19,753 on January 2nd to a new all time high of 23479 on March 18th. However, its not all been plain sailing, as US President Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs on global allies saw a capitulation of these initial longs all the way down to 18800 on April 7th, although this weakness didn’t last long as a month later, more specifically on Tuesday May 6th the index returned to its all time highs again. Wow!
Now, with the index pausing just below this important peak, it seems like a good time to consider the technical outlook.
Technical Outlook: Break or Fail at All Time Highs
An all-time high in any asset is an important resistance focus for traders, as having seen it previously hold and reverse an advance in price, the potential is that it may do so again.
Therefore, as a previous all-time price is neared, the question will always be asked, will it hold and see fresh selling pressure once more, or will it give way on a closing basis, to suggest possibilities of a more sustained period of price strength.
The Germany 40 index currently finds itself in such a situation, and activity over coming sessions may offer clues to its next direction.
On March 18th 2025, the Germany 40 index traded to a level of 23479, which represented a new all-time market high. Significantly, from here, a fall of 19.90% materialised into the April 7th low.
Interestingly, having posted this 18800 April 7th session low, a near 100% upside retracement of the early April decline has developed, with Tuesday’s high this week at 23430. The question traders may now be asking is, can new all-time highs be posted to suggest extension of recent strength, or will it hold again and see fresh price weakness?
Of course, it is an impossible question to answer, as much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends. However, it should be remembered, even if closing breaks of previous all-time highs do develop, it may still not guarantee further strength.
That said, if closes above the 23479 March 18th 2025 extreme do materialise, it may skew possibilities to higher levels. However, it is always difficult to gauge where the next higher resistance points stand in all-time high territory, but it might prove to be the 38% Fibonacci extension of the March/April price decline, which stands at 25232, that could be the next resistance focus.
It is equally possible, as it is an important resistance that 23578 holds and reverses the latest strength again, in which case, we must be aware of possible supports that if broken, may see increasing downside pressure in the index.
The first support, may now be 22860, which was Tuesday’s session low, as this held and prompted a rally in price. This level giving way, while not an outright negative, might then see a deeper decline emerge towards 22237, equal to the April 30th low, even possibly the rising Bollinger mid-average, which currently stands at 21914.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
This all saw the Germany 40 index climb from 19,753 on January 2nd to a new all time high of 23479 on March 18th. However, its not all been plain sailing, as US President Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs on global allies saw a capitulation of these initial longs all the way down to 18800 on April 7th, although this weakness didn’t last long as a month later, more specifically on Tuesday May 6th the index returned to its all time highs again. Wow!
Now, with the index pausing just below this important peak, it seems like a good time to consider the technical outlook.
Technical Outlook: Break or Fail at All Time Highs
An all-time high in any asset is an important resistance focus for traders, as having seen it previously hold and reverse an advance in price, the potential is that it may do so again.
Therefore, as a previous all-time price is neared, the question will always be asked, will it hold and see fresh selling pressure once more, or will it give way on a closing basis, to suggest possibilities of a more sustained period of price strength.
The Germany 40 index currently finds itself in such a situation, and activity over coming sessions may offer clues to its next direction.
On March 18th 2025, the Germany 40 index traded to a level of 23479, which represented a new all-time market high. Significantly, from here, a fall of 19.90% materialised into the April 7th low.
Interestingly, having posted this 18800 April 7th session low, a near 100% upside retracement of the early April decline has developed, with Tuesday’s high this week at 23430. The question traders may now be asking is, can new all-time highs be posted to suggest extension of recent strength, or will it hold again and see fresh price weakness?
Of course, it is an impossible question to answer, as much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends. However, it should be remembered, even if closing breaks of previous all-time highs do develop, it may still not guarantee further strength.
That said, if closes above the 23479 March 18th 2025 extreme do materialise, it may skew possibilities to higher levels. However, it is always difficult to gauge where the next higher resistance points stand in all-time high territory, but it might prove to be the 38% Fibonacci extension of the March/April price decline, which stands at 25232, that could be the next resistance focus.
It is equally possible, as it is an important resistance that 23578 holds and reverses the latest strength again, in which case, we must be aware of possible supports that if broken, may see increasing downside pressure in the index.
The first support, may now be 22860, which was Tuesday’s session low, as this held and prompted a rally in price. This level giving way, while not an outright negative, might then see a deeper decline emerge towards 22237, equal to the April 30th low, even possibly the rising Bollinger mid-average, which currently stands at 21914.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.