Glaxo SmithKline (GSK) Pharma – What's Next? – 9/20/2016
Preaching for patience by setting the examples ;) Roughly 6 months ago we published this piece on technical analysis of Glaxo SmithKline Pharmaceutical Stock. ( bombaybulls.com/glaxosmithkline-gsk-pharma-technical-analysis-3232016/ )It was mentioned clearly in that post that buying the stock near 3600 ( it was trading near that price in March, 2016 ) and hoping for it to reach 4000 might be a gamble !
Six months forward and we are back to 2800. At that time we were relying on 3000 - 3200 range and few short term trades did materialize but nothing substantial. Here comes a crucial part about technical analysis which helps you determine whether to trust on a support / resistance level and up to what extent ! There is no easy answer for that because it requires both expertise and experience.
So now it looks like the one and half year old range has finally broken to the downside and it will more likely to test the next lower range support area near 2400 - 2600 in coming sessions. Again we are in wait and be patient mode until good opportunity arises to grab it near the above mentioned support area. Here one thing we would like to mention that in general equity market is looking rich ( but who cares about valuation these days ! ;) ) and as a good student of history we would like to be very cautious. Because things happen when they are least expected in stock market. Currently everybody is in buy the dip mode but if not tomorrow then some day after tomorrow it will stop working for sure. Most pharmaceutical stocks are beyond stratosphere these days and the day of reckoning will of course come. Thus, even at 2400 - 2600, we will look for trading opportunities rather than long term holding opportunities. Of course, you never know for sure but grab with hand over fist moment doesn't materialize until there is full blown mayhem and we get the stock at 1/3 of today's price !
Six months forward and we are back to 2800. At that time we were relying on 3000 - 3200 range and few short term trades did materialize but nothing substantial. Here comes a crucial part about technical analysis which helps you determine whether to trust on a support / resistance level and up to what extent ! There is no easy answer for that because it requires both expertise and experience.
So now it looks like the one and half year old range has finally broken to the downside and it will more likely to test the next lower range support area near 2400 - 2600 in coming sessions. Again we are in wait and be patient mode until good opportunity arises to grab it near the above mentioned support area. Here one thing we would like to mention that in general equity market is looking rich ( but who cares about valuation these days ! ;) ) and as a good student of history we would like to be very cautious. Because things happen when they are least expected in stock market. Currently everybody is in buy the dip mode but if not tomorrow then some day after tomorrow it will stop working for sure. Most pharmaceutical stocks are beyond stratosphere these days and the day of reckoning will of course come. Thus, even at 2400 - 2600, we will look for trading opportunities rather than long term holding opportunities. Of course, you never know for sure but grab with hand over fist moment doesn't materialize until there is full blown mayhem and we get the stock at 1/3 of today's price !
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