As the title implies I do think that what we will look back and call "MOASS" has begun..from a technical and market mechanics standpoint...
Technicals:
22 Level
Elliott Wave Count
From an Elliott Wave count perspective, price holding the general 22 level is a very good thing as that shows price is respecting the 05/24/24 and 08/05/24 lows which I am counting as the completion of important lower degree Wave 2's that I am tracking as part of the main macro count
SPX Synergy and Deviation
SPX should be imminently close to bottoming as well and the subsequent runup we see over the next couple of months is what will provide major FEUL from a sentiment perspective to our MOASS ROCKET
MARKET MECHANICS
Margin Calls and Shorts Covering
Settlement Cycle Indicator
As a reminder my final VIDEO updates will be on:
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!!!
Technicals:
22 Level
- Ive been consistent for weeks now in saying that 22 is essentially the floor.. and price has been absolutely respecting that general level
- Temporary dips below dont invalidate as in my general view of TA it takes SUSTAINED lower movement (i.e. lower highs and lows) to truly invalidate a key structural level
Elliott Wave Count
From an Elliott Wave count perspective, price holding the general 22 level is a very good thing as that shows price is respecting the 05/24/24 and 08/05/24 lows which I am counting as the completion of important lower degree Wave 2's that I am tracking as part of the main macro count
SPX Synergy and Deviation
- I ranted for weeks about the importance of Synergy between SPX and GME...WHEN IT MATTERS
- I consistently said that there is no such thing as permanent negative/positive BETA..and that POSITIVE Beta is needed and will help FUEL the MOASS ENGINE..and eventually price would deviate and that GME WOULD BOTTOM FIRST...and thats EXACTLY what we have seen as of now.
SPX should be imminently close to bottoming as well and the subsequent runup we see over the next couple of months is what will provide major FEUL from a sentiment perspective to our MOASS ROCKET
MARKET MECHANICS
- Convertible Bond Holders NEED price above 29.85 to realize profit
- The shorts they put on that brought price down are to HEDGE their position (aka stay Delta Neutral) until that happens
- They will ultimately close some or all of those shorts as price nears 29.85..but do be aware they will add shorts back on along the way as price retraces to hedge against any significant moves lower which will greatly increase VOLATILITY..and thats where the Arb Traders come in
- The Arbitrage traders have been feasting on market volatility in the meantime..and they will continue to feast on any significant volatility swings
Margin Calls and Shorts Covering
- Margin pressure is INTENSE right now across the market and Hedge Funds are feeling the pain BIG TIME...that means Legacy Shorts are too
- I said a few weeks ago that the market in general was starting to see Shorts bail on positions and you can expect that to intensify as GME rises
- dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14574029/hedge-funds-margin-calls-donald-trump-tariffs.html
- reddit.com/r/GME/comments/1j9txci/shorts_are_covering_as_we_speak/
- bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/short-covering-is-lying-beneath-the-recent-stock-market-rebounds
Settlement Cycle Indicator
- Tweaked the "blue lines" and modified it so that each settlement cycle has its own distinct color
- Remember all of the lines are PROJECTIONS which means they are drawn BEFORE price even gets there
- With that in mind notice how well they correspond with major changes in the price structure
- Its not a crystal ball per se' but its pretty darn good as far as Im concerned (notice how it NAILED the April runup from last year- wish I had it back then smh)
As a reminder my final VIDEO updates will be on:
- 04/19
- 05/03
- 05/17
- 06/07
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!!!
Trade active
Let me clarify the Market Mechanics piece above:Long-Bond holders really want price above 29.85
Arb Traders could care less and make money on Bond/Stock mispricing via options volatility
You can also have someone who is playing both angles
But know this: once price gets near or above 29.85 things get really spicy for all involved
A short squeeze puts Arb Traders at DIRE Risk of having their trades liquidated if they can't cover effectively
Trade closed: target reached
Seeing the Cohen moved a bunch of shares into a Margin Account..interestingI have no idea why but my first thought is that he wants to access additional leverage
We shall see but its starting to get reallllllyyyyy spicy
Note
Morning!Casino will be open later
Its still all eyes on the VIX..markets are shaky but I do expect them to settle
GME is holding up extremely well all things considered and I expect that to continue
Note
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Touched and retraced from Micro Resistance..thats a good sign people..This market is settling it seems..for now smh
Any sustained market POSITIVE sentiment we see is ROCKET FUEL for GME right now..watch out
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The last week in markets has been one for the Business School and Econ class books I tell ya lolSentiment is the only thing that matters in markets...no matter what... everything comes back to sentiment
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And thats a wrap!Well wasnt that a day in the markets lol
Still tons of uncertainty in the markets but GME is looking curiously strong in this chaos...maybe we are not so crazy after all (wink)
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Morning!Casino will be open later
Market seems to be settling again..for now smh
But as I said yesterday ANY sustained positive market sentiment will be ROCKET FUEL for whats most likely coming after 04/20
Note
Micro Resistance still resistingNote
Provided SPX shows some legs from here we should be headed to the Major Resistance zone aboveNote
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And that's a wrap!Well as we see the market is still fighting to find its legs
Bring on 04/20
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Morning!Well the trade war has escalated AGAIN..and continues to spook markets..
GME is still holding up well compared to other major tickers
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Made it back to micro resistanceLets see what happens from here
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And thats wrap!Well well...look at the market now smh...
I guess the "It Begins" piece of the title of this update wasn't too far off
Lets see if "It" continues
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So you know my "Blue line" settlement indicator?I typically set it to show projected settlements based on the Daily timeframe
But I have playing around with it and wanted to see how well it worked to show INTRADAY settlements WITHIN the daily
Seeing some pretty interesting stuff..notice the price action around the lines
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Morning!Casino will be open shortly
Another day of watching the VIX..as it goes the market goes
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Expected path as we lead up to 04/21Note
And thats a wrap!Soooooo much shady stuff going on with the VIX right now..not to mention its obvious someone front ran that pump yesterday in SPX..
GME is holding up well folks!
Hanging out in the Micro Resistance zone but that shouldnt last much longer
Yep..it all seems to be coming together
Note
Morning!Casino will be open later
Still and will continue to be throughout the rest of this saga- All Eyes On The VIX
Note
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And thats a wrap!Yeah things are kicking into high gear
Will be reaaallly interesting to see how Options Market Makers handle this
If the The Cat makes an appearance next weekend like I suspect..LOOK OUT
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.