MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!
We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
Note
Morning!
Casino will be open shortly
Nothing much to add from the weekend update
Watching support/resistance, volume, volatility and short volume
Also watching for continued strength in XRT (notice the short volume in XRT has rocketed recently...coincidence?)
Chart above works for now
M O A S S
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Zooming back in a bit
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Ok looking for a bottom here
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XRT should find a bottom soon and turn up which is going to be a catalyst for GMEs move up
Note
And thats a wrap!
Broad market/ XRT pulled back and GME followed which is expected
As we called out earlier in the day price seems to be finding a local bottom around 21
Notice XRT and the broader markets are also finding some footing as well
Thinking we push higher the rest of the week with the next major target being 28 but expecting some resistance around 25
M O A S S
Note
Some additional technical analysis to show where shorts get in trouble
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Morning!
Casino will be open soon
At this point just waiting for volume and volatility
Really interested to see what price does as we get closer to Oct 21st and the end of the month
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Note
Price still trying to find a bottom
Once it does we are headed to 28
Note
And thats a wrap!
As we mentioned price is working to find a bottom
Broad market seems to have found its legs so now it should be GMEs turn
M O A S S
Note
Morning!
Casino will be open soon
Lots of FED chatter today so that should impart some volatility into the market
Lets see if that translates into volume for GME
Chart above works for now
M O A S S
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Areas of interest for today so far
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Just waiting for price to bottom
GME has legendarily long corrective periods and as is typical its taking its sweet time consolidating and turning up
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Note
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And thats a wrap!
Lots of flat out manipulation going on today lol
How many weeks has Gensler been on the job now at this point lol/
Doesnt matter as they CAN NOT STOP WHATS COMING
M O A S S
Note
Morning!
Casino will be open soon
Expecting the volatility and movement in the broad market to pick up which should nudge GME along
As we have been saying the next stop once we get moving is 28
Chart above works for now
M O A S S
Note
Gametime
Price appears to be bottoming and tracing out a classic Elliott Wave Pattern: a Leading Diagonal
Chatgpt/Google it for more info but this pattern usually marks the beginning of new trend
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Markets are fractal (i.e. looks the same on all time frames) in nature so as we track this potential leading diagonal there is a chance its tracing out a bigger one than we were thinking
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If this larger diagonal plays out it should shape up like so
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And thats a wrap!
It appears GME has almost bottomed!
Watching for a completion of this leading diagonal pattern to confirm
We still maintain that our next major target is 28...25 will see some resistance though
As far as we are concerned the structure of this move up is STRONGLY signaling that we are preparing to rocket higher
M O A S S
Note
Morning and TGIF!
Casino will be open soon
As we said yesterday its GAMETIME
Price appears to be bottoming and is tracing out a Leading Diagonal pattern to start the next impulsive move higher
As mentioned yesterday, being that markets are fractal there is a possibility that its tracing out a bigger leading diagonal than we were originally thinking
White path shows what this looks like if the diagonal is complete already
Yellow path shows the path if its tracing a bigger diagonal
M O A S S
Note
Diagonals are overlapping by nature and thats what we are seeing but nothing has changed
Note
And thats a wrap!
Assuming Wave III is done, we came a couple of pennies short of our idealized Wave III target
We then saw a fairly aggressive retracement back to our Wave 4 target which just so happened to be near VWAP from the Wed low ($20.30)
That VWAP also provided support
Max pain is 21 for this week which also provided fuel for the push lower
Expect an EXPLOSIVE first half of the week next week which will be the fuel for what we see coming after Oct 21st
M O A S S
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