Gold Price Analysis Ahead Of NFP
Updated
Fundamental View
The USD dropped against gold last Wednesday after the ADP report released a negative than expected. U.S bonds also dropped after the report came. Fortunately, the USD was saved on Wednesday for the ISM manufacturing report. ISM printed positive than forecast.
U.S bonds and gold have opposite co-relation. if bonds rise safe heaven gold usually drops, and if bonds fall gold usually rises. U.S. bonds have an opposite co-relation with USD/JPY as well, especially 10 years bonds.
Anyhow, today there are some high-voltage reports that will publish.
Upcoming Reports
1. NFP
2. Average Hourly Earnings
3. Unemployment Rate
4. ISM Services PMI
In my previous article, I did mention ADP report follows NFP most of the time. So, most probably NFP report is going to fall today. In August, ADP reported an increase of 326K jobs, far less than the 943K increase in non-farm payrolls that month.
If NFP follows ADP lower in a meaningful way, the USD could fall quickly against Gold because investors will start to consider a further delay to tapering (that I mention in my last article). In light of the ADP report, it will be difficult for the dollar to rally before Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
But there is an alternative scenario as well though it is not strong we have to consider it. Wednesday's ISM manufacturing report was printed positive and yesterday's unemployment claims also dropped. that is a good sign of positive unemployment rates.
So, the USD may not fall as we are expecting. In my view, after releasing NFP gold will go up first nearly 1830 and will drop again nearly 1800 price zone. i don't know the future but from my long time experience, I have seen these scenarios many times.
Technical View
From the present rate, immediate support is identifying at the 1800 price zone. If NFP rise and gold stable breaking below 1800 will open the door for the 1790 price zone and finally, the downside target is the 1880 price zone.
On the other hand, if NFP drop, our immediate target is 1830/35 price zone. after breaking above 1835 our final target is 1850/1855 price zone.
The USD dropped against gold last Wednesday after the ADP report released a negative than expected. U.S bonds also dropped after the report came. Fortunately, the USD was saved on Wednesday for the ISM manufacturing report. ISM printed positive than forecast.
U.S bonds and gold have opposite co-relation. if bonds rise safe heaven gold usually drops, and if bonds fall gold usually rises. U.S. bonds have an opposite co-relation with USD/JPY as well, especially 10 years bonds.
Anyhow, today there are some high-voltage reports that will publish.
Upcoming Reports
1. NFP
2. Average Hourly Earnings
3. Unemployment Rate
4. ISM Services PMI
In my previous article, I did mention ADP report follows NFP most of the time. So, most probably NFP report is going to fall today. In August, ADP reported an increase of 326K jobs, far less than the 943K increase in non-farm payrolls that month.
If NFP follows ADP lower in a meaningful way, the USD could fall quickly against Gold because investors will start to consider a further delay to tapering (that I mention in my last article). In light of the ADP report, it will be difficult for the dollar to rally before Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
But there is an alternative scenario as well though it is not strong we have to consider it. Wednesday's ISM manufacturing report was printed positive and yesterday's unemployment claims also dropped. that is a good sign of positive unemployment rates.
So, the USD may not fall as we are expecting. In my view, after releasing NFP gold will go up first nearly 1830 and will drop again nearly 1800 price zone. i don't know the future but from my long time experience, I have seen these scenarios many times.
Technical View
From the present rate, immediate support is identifying at the 1800 price zone. If NFP rise and gold stable breaking below 1800 will open the door for the 1790 price zone and finally, the downside target is the 1880 price zone.
On the other hand, if NFP drop, our immediate target is 1830/35 price zone. after breaking above 1835 our final target is 1850/1855 price zone.
Trade closed: target reached
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