GOLD : Gold is turning around unexpectedly
Gold prices ended the US session and started the new day quite calmly compared to previous developments, trading around 2,400 USD after peaking on July 24 at 2,432 USD. Last night, the fluctuations after the release of the preliminary PMI report were not too significant. Besides, before the opening of the 5-year US government bond auction, gold prices increased slightly as yields decreased. But soon after, the 10-year government bond yield increased 2 bps to 4,274%, putting pressure on gold prices. Although the USD weakened slightly, the impact was insignificant.
CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts show that the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024.
On the economic front, the US trade balance improved more than expected, but the preliminary manufacturing PMI fell, indicating weakness. Specifically, S&P Global's July services and composite PMIs both exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 and 55.0 respectively; while manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.6 to 49.5, lower than forecast.
Investors are waiting for the release of Q2 GDP data and the core PCE index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - to have more basis to evaluate the economic situation and guide monetary policy. Regarding forecast, Q2 GDP is expected to reach 1.9% over the same period last year, showing that the economy is accelerating. It is worth noting that inflation calculated on core PCE is expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%.
CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts show that the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024.
On the economic front, the US trade balance improved more than expected, but the preliminary manufacturing PMI fell, indicating weakness. Specifically, S&P Global's July services and composite PMIs both exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 and 55.0 respectively; while manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.6 to 49.5, lower than forecast.
Investors are waiting for the release of Q2 GDP data and the core PCE index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - to have more basis to evaluate the economic situation and guide monetary policy. Regarding forecast, Q2 GDP is expected to reach 1.9% over the same period last year, showing that the economy is accelerating. It is worth noting that inflation calculated on core PCE is expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%.
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