Important Note
These two scenarios will only remain valid if 3402 holds as the top in gold. If gold breaks above 3402 before Scenario 1 plays out, both scenarios will be considered invalid.
Scenario 1:
Gold is expected to retest the 3330–3323 zone — a significant Break of Structure (BOS) area. A sweep of this zone could initiate a bullish wave, potentially pushing gold towards the 3624–3650 range.
However, I personally see a low probability for this scenario, as I believe gold may have already formed a major mid-year top around 3500, making an early break unlikely and limiting the potential for this wave to fully develop.
Scenario 2:
If gold does not follow Scenario 1 and breaks below the 3330–3323 zone, it’s likely to retest its major demand area at 3200–3166. A sweep of this zone would very likely trigger a strong bullish move toward the 3475–3500 range.
Why I Favor Scenario 2:
It aligns with a deeper market structure test.
It allows gold to revisit and confirm a major demand zone.
From a higher time frame perspective, it helps complete a broader structural move.
In my opinion, Scenario 2 carries a higher probability based on current market behavior and structure.
Final Thoughts:
These are the two possible scenarios I currently foresee for gold — but remember, I could be wrong. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Intraday traders can use these scenarios to frame their levels and plan scalps accordingly.
Swing traders have a complete setup here to work with based on structure and key zones.
God bless you all — trading isn’t as easy as it looks, especially in gold. Stay sharp and trade smart. Thank you! 🙏
These two scenarios will only remain valid if 3402 holds as the top in gold. If gold breaks above 3402 before Scenario 1 plays out, both scenarios will be considered invalid.
Scenario 1:
Gold is expected to retest the 3330–3323 zone — a significant Break of Structure (BOS) area. A sweep of this zone could initiate a bullish wave, potentially pushing gold towards the 3624–3650 range.
However, I personally see a low probability for this scenario, as I believe gold may have already formed a major mid-year top around 3500, making an early break unlikely and limiting the potential for this wave to fully develop.
Scenario 2:
If gold does not follow Scenario 1 and breaks below the 3330–3323 zone, it’s likely to retest its major demand area at 3200–3166. A sweep of this zone would very likely trigger a strong bullish move toward the 3475–3500 range.
Why I Favor Scenario 2:
It aligns with a deeper market structure test.
It allows gold to revisit and confirm a major demand zone.
From a higher time frame perspective, it helps complete a broader structural move.
In my opinion, Scenario 2 carries a higher probability based on current market behavior and structure.
Final Thoughts:
These are the two possible scenarios I currently foresee for gold — but remember, I could be wrong. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Intraday traders can use these scenarios to frame their levels and plan scalps accordingly.
Swing traders have a complete setup here to work with based on structure and key zones.
God bless you all — trading isn’t as easy as it looks, especially in gold. Stay sharp and trade smart. Thank you! 🙏
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.