CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Short
Updated

Is gold about to fall?

144
Gold rebounded to around 3414 in the Asian session yesterday, but was blocked and fell back. Later, it broke down to around 3288 and closed down on the daily line. The normal trend continues to be bearish today, and there is a probability of going to around 3270 or even 3250. However, yesterday's low point of 3288 is the position of 618 in this wave of rise. In other words, if 3288 cannot be effectively broken today, the market will rebound or fluctuate. Only when 3288 is effectively broken can we continue to see 20-40 US dollars. From the daily line of gold, it has twice reached a high and then fell back, and the daily line has fallen twice. Today's short-term fluctuations will be relatively intense, and the direction is not formed in one step. The short-term performance will be repeated and circuitous.

The 4-hour chart rose first and then fell yesterday, and finally closed at a low level at the end of the day. And once lost 3300, but it failed to close below it in the end, which made today's short-term still have a certain degree of repetitiveness. The market is oscillating ahead, not unilateral weakness. Combined with the hourly chart, a oscillating step-down channel is currently constructed. Yesterday, the high point of 3414 was first tested and then turned to fall under pressure. The low point of the lower track of the 3370-3360 range was weakened. The late-session pullback confirmed that the suppression near 3370 was successful again. The late-session fell to 3288, which is a rhythmic step-down channel. Combined with the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands touched the lower track and received support. At present, the middle track coincides with the high point of yesterday's pullback at 3370. In the short term, it may fluctuate around the middle and lower tracks. After the shock, wait for the momentum to open the Bollinger Bands. If you sell short-term operations during the day, you can rely on 3370 as a critical point to rebound and sell. Today's weekly line is closed, and the short-term may be repeatedly circuitous. In the Asian session, the gold price directly started a downward trend near 3324. If the market continues to be weak, then 3324 is very likely to become today's high. The lower target can first look at 3300. Once this point is lost, look further to 3290. If 3290 or yesterday's low of 3288 can form effective support, you can set a small stop loss to try to buy; if it effectively falls below, continue to enter the market to sell when the gold price rebounds.

Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to sell on rebounds as the main strategy, and buy on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 3350-3360 is 3350-3360, and the short-term focus on the lower support of 3280-3290 is 3280-3290.

Gold strategy:

Buy in the range: 3280-3275, SL: 3270, TP: 3300-3310

Sell in the range: 3325-3330, SL: 3335, TP: 3310-3300

Key points:

First support: 3280, second support: 3275, third support: 3270

First resistance: 3325, second resistance: 3330, third resistance: 3335
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Note
News: On Friday (May 9) in the European session, the US dollar index was around 100.56; spot gold rebounded after yesterday's plunge, and the current gold price is at $3,328, up 0.43%. There is no economic data to watch during the day, and we will focus on the speeches of many Fed officials; including Fed Governor Barr's speech on artificial intelligence and the job market. Fed Governor Kugler spoke on maximizing employment.

Technical: From the daily level, the long shadow line is currently closed, and the overall bottoming out is showing signs. If the bulls can stabilize the 3356 mark again in the evening and achieve an effective closing, the bulls will regain the dominance of the market. The 1-hour cycle structure is likely to be completed, and a K-line combination that stops falling has appeared. In the short term, focus on the upper 3335 line resistance, and look at the 3356 line if it breaks; focus on the 3315 line support below, and look at the 3300 line support if it breaks! Personally, I suggest buying at low levels; GOLD watershed: 3315.

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