Bearish on Gold (14/06/2023)
Updated
Important financial data: PPI will be announced this morning (8:30 AM New York time), EIA U.S. crude oil inventory data (10:30 AM New York time), and at 2 PM the major U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be released, with a 99% probability that the rate hike will be paused.
Fundamentals:
• The Biden administration is preparing to provide depleted uranium bombs (potentially exacerbating the risk of prolonging the war), and there are opinions that the Biden administration needs to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war within this year because there will be a general election next year.
• The May CPI has seen an eleven-month consecutive decline, mainly due to a significant drop in energy, with reports showing that energy prices have dropped by 11.7% compared to the same period last year, and energy fell by 3.6% last month.
These are some personal summaries and should not be taken as investment advice. Investing involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
As we all know, the U.S. has been releasing strategic crude oil reserves, and for the U.S., which is at war every day, having a low strategic oil reserve is definitely not viable. They should consider buying when crude oil is below 70, so pay special attention to this morning's EIA U.S. crude oil reserves. Personally, I think in the coming weeks, the increase in U.S. demand for crude oil coupled with further cuts by OPEC could continue to push up the price of crude oil. I estimate it could rise to at least 75-80. The rising trend in oil will definitely put pressure on the upcoming U.S. CPI data. If the CPI rebounds, the Fed may start raising interest rates again, and then gold can be more bullish at a lower level. But at this stage, I estimate that gold will likely remain bearish in the short term.
Gold: I have placed a short at 1955, with a profit target of around 1930, and a stop loss at 1960, as there is data this morning, I've set a more conservative stop loss.
Crude Oil: I think there's nothing wrong with a bullish view, so I'll place a long at 69.8 and see if it can reach it after this morning's pullback.
Fundamentals:
• The Biden administration is preparing to provide depleted uranium bombs (potentially exacerbating the risk of prolonging the war), and there are opinions that the Biden administration needs to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war within this year because there will be a general election next year.
• The May CPI has seen an eleven-month consecutive decline, mainly due to a significant drop in energy, with reports showing that energy prices have dropped by 11.7% compared to the same period last year, and energy fell by 3.6% last month.
These are some personal summaries and should not be taken as investment advice. Investing involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
As we all know, the U.S. has been releasing strategic crude oil reserves, and for the U.S., which is at war every day, having a low strategic oil reserve is definitely not viable. They should consider buying when crude oil is below 70, so pay special attention to this morning's EIA U.S. crude oil reserves. Personally, I think in the coming weeks, the increase in U.S. demand for crude oil coupled with further cuts by OPEC could continue to push up the price of crude oil. I estimate it could rise to at least 75-80. The rising trend in oil will definitely put pressure on the upcoming U.S. CPI data. If the CPI rebounds, the Fed may start raising interest rates again, and then gold can be more bullish at a lower level. But at this stage, I estimate that gold will likely remain bearish in the short term.
Gold: I have placed a short at 1955, with a profit target of around 1930, and a stop loss at 1960, as there is data this morning, I've set a more conservative stop loss.
Crude Oil: I think there's nothing wrong with a bullish view, so I'll place a long at 69.8 and see if it can reach it after this morning's pullback.
Note
Still holding the position from 1955, I have adjusted my take profit to 1933, I think it will be reached soon. :) Happy!Trade closed: target reached
Closeed my position at 1933, $22 dollars profit
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