Is Gold ready to retrace?
Gold has experienced a significant appreciation of 48.18% since 6 October 2023. This remarkable increase can be attributed to rising global uncertainties, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the impending US presidential elections.
New Highs and Market Indicators
From a technical standpoint, gold is currently trading at historic highs, placing it in uncharted territory with no established resistance levels on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a reading of 77.26 on 26 September, suggesting that gold may be in an overbought condition. Generally, RSI readings above 70 signal potential exhaustion of buying momentum.
The price has also been trading above the 200-period Average for 254 candles, which tends to show a potentially ageing upward trend on the daily chart. The longer the price remains on the same side of a Moving Average, the more prone it is to a retraction.
So, considering these elements:
1. High appreciation of more than 48% in Gold prices over the past 12 months,
2. Recent RSI reading at 77.26, indicating overbought conditions
3. Potentially ageing uptrend, with 254 candles above the SMA200,
Given these factors, there is a possibility that gold may experience a slightly stronger pullback if it manages to break below the uptrend line drawn on the chart between 5 August and 10 October. Such a movement could lead to a decline toward the 2480.00 level within a few days.
The Influence of Political Uncertainty
On the other hand, gold is often viewed as a safe haven during uncertain times. As recent US election polls indicate a technical tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it is plausible that a more definitive movement in gold prices may not occur until after the election results are announced.
Navigating the Gold Market
In conclusion, while the current indicators suggest a potential for price retraction, gold's status as a haven and the upcoming political landscape may heavily influence future price actions. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these elements in their market strategies.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
New Highs and Market Indicators
From a technical standpoint, gold is currently trading at historic highs, placing it in uncharted territory with no established resistance levels on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a reading of 77.26 on 26 September, suggesting that gold may be in an overbought condition. Generally, RSI readings above 70 signal potential exhaustion of buying momentum.
The price has also been trading above the 200-period Average for 254 candles, which tends to show a potentially ageing upward trend on the daily chart. The longer the price remains on the same side of a Moving Average, the more prone it is to a retraction.
So, considering these elements:
1. High appreciation of more than 48% in Gold prices over the past 12 months,
2. Recent RSI reading at 77.26, indicating overbought conditions
3. Potentially ageing uptrend, with 254 candles above the SMA200,
Given these factors, there is a possibility that gold may experience a slightly stronger pullback if it manages to break below the uptrend line drawn on the chart between 5 August and 10 October. Such a movement could lead to a decline toward the 2480.00 level within a few days.
The Influence of Political Uncertainty
On the other hand, gold is often viewed as a safe haven during uncertain times. As recent US election polls indicate a technical tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it is plausible that a more definitive movement in gold prices may not occur until after the election results are announced.
Navigating the Gold Market
In conclusion, while the current indicators suggest a potential for price retraction, gold's status as a haven and the upcoming political landscape may heavily influence future price actions. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these elements in their market strategies.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.