downtrend starting ? wait for confirmation
Updated
price broke 1195.7 but daily candle not closed yet while i'm writing.
1195.7 was last daily higher low in the recent uptrend (in the mean time is the lower range of the last week candle).
price is now below 5 and 10 MA on daily and it must stay there at the daily close.
why need to have a lower high to confirm the downtrend running.
i'll update as soon as chart develops info.
at the moment i'm adding shorts (small) at any top (look at 1h or 4h candle at least)
SL above 10MA (DAILY)
trade carefully
1195.7 was last daily higher low in the recent uptrend (in the mean time is the lower range of the last week candle).
price is now below 5 and 10 MA on daily and it must stay there at the daily close.
why need to have a lower high to confirm the downtrend running.
i'll update as soon as chart develops info.
at the moment i'm adding shorts (small) at any top (look at 1h or 4h candle at least)
SL above 10MA (DAILY)
trade carefully
Note
break of the 10ma on daily confirmed, very possible to have an healthy bounce to 203/205 area (retest of last range and 10 MA levels.at that level i will add sell for the swing down if we will have it. SL 208/210 or higher (depends on your money management and TF). this is a play for long run down. once we will have a lower low on daily just move SL on daily MA (trailing) and sell any top on 4h (SL same criteria). trade with care, proper risk management as always.
Note
downtrend on. sell any top on 1h or 4h. enter small if not sure, and enter again if it goes higher since you get the top. since we had no retrace yet (new lower hight on daily) healthy SL should be above 20ma daily, or more risky 10ma. this is what i'll do.proper position size and risk management required, be careful.
Note
note: this is swing trading down, so please eyes on daily and 4h while you're on small TF.Note
ok downtrend on the run, we still waiting some important retrace to sell more. 4h looks tired so a pull back is very welcome. as soon as we reach a new hight we can sell. SL above 5 or 10 MA of the daily chart super healthy.remember we are trading the downtrend signal on the daily chart, entering obviously as soon as we see tops on lower TF.
trade carefully, respect position size and risk management
Note
daily downtrend in play, price bouncing from below on 5MA and 20MA. we bounced also the yearly pivot from below. my targets 72 -61 - 57. invalidation: daily close above 204.Note
in the past two days we had a powerful retracement on last week move down.price did not reached 204/205 level where i see a critical level for the downtrend i was waiting. i'm still on my plan. if we'll move down be careful on 72 area. if we'll reach those levels before the important news coming this week i suggest to close position to avoid risks. look at last week range for major move and MA to check possible MA bounce (20, 10).
Trade closed manually
downtrend invalidated on daily, price is now in a small range between MA convergence and descending trendline (daily weekly). 1180 and 1220 are the levels to look at if we want trade on smaller TF.
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