Markets indicate the Fed will cut interest rates.
Updated
The global financial market has experienced a major earthquake. The three major US stock indexes plummeted, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, causing the Nikkei index to plummet 12% today. It has fallen 20% in just a few days in August.
Gold, cryptocurrency, and crude oil are no exception. There are no survivors. The market is now in extreme panic. Such a plunge indicates extreme concerns about the US economy.
In July, the non-farm data seemed to be significantly positive, whether it was employment or unemployment rate, or even the monthly hourly wage rate. Traders bet heavily that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and the probability was over 90%. The interest rate cut seemed to be a good thing, and it was positive for both the stock market and gold, providing more liquidity.
However, behind the extreme positives is the risk of a hard landing of the US economy. With only 114,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the risk of a hard landing is far greater than that of a rate cut, which is the key reason for the global financial market crash.
Some people say that the Nikkei index plummeted and triggered financial market turmoil because of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. In fact, Japan's interest rate hike this time was not large, only 15 basis points. Japan can't even control the depreciation of its own currency, and it can still interfere with the global market, especially the current crash.
This is just a fuse, a trigger for the change of sentiment. In July, the market hyped up the expectation of interest rate cuts, and pulled gold to a historical high of $2,480/ounce. This time, with the help of the unexpected positive non-agricultural data, the market pulled up and then sold and then washed the market.
Looking back in September, the gold price did not change, but the market had already harvested. By then, the impact of the interest rate cut was greater than the previous emotional hype.
The September rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, and the global stock market crash is good news for gold.
Therefore, gold can go long at 2402-2405. As long as the 2400 level is not lost, it will continue to rise after the shock.
Gold, cryptocurrency, and crude oil are no exception. There are no survivors. The market is now in extreme panic. Such a plunge indicates extreme concerns about the US economy.
In July, the non-farm data seemed to be significantly positive, whether it was employment or unemployment rate, or even the monthly hourly wage rate. Traders bet heavily that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and the probability was over 90%. The interest rate cut seemed to be a good thing, and it was positive for both the stock market and gold, providing more liquidity.
However, behind the extreme positives is the risk of a hard landing of the US economy. With only 114,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the risk of a hard landing is far greater than that of a rate cut, which is the key reason for the global financial market crash.
Some people say that the Nikkei index plummeted and triggered financial market turmoil because of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. In fact, Japan's interest rate hike this time was not large, only 15 basis points. Japan can't even control the depreciation of its own currency, and it can still interfere with the global market, especially the current crash.
This is just a fuse, a trigger for the change of sentiment. In July, the market hyped up the expectation of interest rate cuts, and pulled gold to a historical high of $2,480/ounce. This time, with the help of the unexpected positive non-agricultural data, the market pulled up and then sold and then washed the market.
Looking back in September, the gold price did not change, but the market had already harvested. By then, the impact of the interest rate cut was greater than the previous emotional hype.
The September rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, and the global stock market crash is good news for gold.
Therefore, gold can go long at 2402-2405. As long as the 2400 level is not lost, it will continue to rise after the shock.
Trade active
The first thing I do when I wake up is to post today's trading signals on the website. Now that our signals have been verified, enjoy the profits. If you don't want to miss the right trading signals, I suggest you click on my website.Trade active
XAUUSD is expected to rise, with the next target at 2430. For further layout, you can follow me or click on my website. I cannot say that my sharing is 100% correct, but I can guarantee that it will help you 100%.Trade active
I have announced in the channel that gold will rise to around 2420 in the Asian session and is currently making a profit. If you don't want to miss the right trading signals, I suggest you click on my website and join the channel.Trade active
I have been very busy these days. I have been helping my users on my personal website. I have been emphasizing on the website that we should buy gold around 2390 until we can make a profit at 2418. You can click on my website to check it out.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.