🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD
🔰 Time Frame : 4H
🔰 Scale Type : Small Scale
🔰 Direction : SELL
From a highly technical standpoint, it seems that gold is experiencing some interesting dynamics. While there may be a temporary bullish sentiment due to the recent CPI news, it's important to note that gold is still in a strong downtrend when looking at the monthly chart.
It's worth mentioning that gold prices don't always have a negative correlation with the strength of the US dollar. Other factors and market dynamics can come into play.
In trading, it's important to understand that it is a zero-sum game, meaning that for one participant to profit, another must lose an equal amount. As you move up the hierarchy, the average order volume per trade tends to increase. Market makers, who facilitate liquidity, often have an order flow book with pending orders to take advantage of the liquidity created in the gold market over the past few weeks. They require this liquidity to keep the market functioning.
In addition to the previous analysis, it's important to bear in mind that the upcoming news of the Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding Food & Energy (YoY) for June is predicted to have a lower reading. This information can have an impact on the market dynamics and the price of gold.
A lower reading in the PPI ex Food & Energy suggests that inflationary pressures may be easing or not as significant as expected. This could potentially dampen the bullish sentiment for gold, as gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. Lower inflation expectations might lead to a decrease in demand for gold and could further reinforce the downtrend seen on the monthly chart.
Therefore, considering the technical factors, the monthly downtrend, and the potential impact of the predicted lower reading in the PPI ex Food & Energy, it becomes even more important to closely monitor the market and its operations to make informed trading decisions.
Therefore, there is a possibility of a false breakout today, where the price briefly breaks above a key level but then closes inside the 4-hour supply zone. This scenario may occur before the price heads down again during the news release, aiming to fill the market imbalance and utilize the liquidity available.
It's crucial to understand that trading is not solely based on technical or fundamental analysis. One must also keep a close eye on and comprehend how the market actually operates, including the various forces and dynamics at play.