Is Gold really Bullish? Gold to 1680 soon?
Gold(xauusd) has found itself once again hovering around the interim medium term resistance zone following worse than expected news on Jackson Hole Symposium and disastrous NFP data . At the time of writing this report gold seems really bullish and lot of retail traders and spectators are wondering what's really happening on gold. So will bull or bear will dominate coming weeks? Lets work on our probabilities
Technical Analysis; Xauusd has been caped by an ascending trendline and forming clear highs and lows so far. Every dips are being bought in this incredibly short term bull run .However what's interesting is once again retesting the medium term resistance zone placed at 1831-1833.70 levels which has completely ravaged the bull runs in last three occasion following july 14, july 29 and aug 4 fractal and a big crash later on . So be ready for the new week where we may see a quadruple top rejection from this level. As a trader i need to work on the probabilities which lean more on the bear side however I will be concerned about the fakeouts where we may see market clearing sell side liquidity first where we may have better selling entries. Technically we may see price dip below 1727 level once again within two weeks time however a firm break above 1735 level would invalidate this scenario and postpone my bearish bias. For traders out there look for the firm break and retest of ascending trendline which will add more confidence to selling side.
Fundamental analysis: last couple of weeks has been harsh for gold negatively correlating assets especially DXY AND US10Y which are in a parabolic downtrend which everyone can know as us economic data are not as expected. we did see a strong upside momentum in gold as inflation concerns are rising and gold is generally used as safe heaven against inflation. However there is a lot of optimism from fed and biden's speech regarding plan to recovery of jobs which is scheduled later this week so we may see sides flipping soon as this kind of economy will not work out on longer term for us dollar as market leader.so fundamentally as well
i am expecting a bullish dollar week.
I have personally engaged my selling order with an entry of 1833.60 and a stop loss of around 100 pips . i might close my positions early if i see negative signs to my analysis and will surely add more orders if i see a clear break and retest of ascending trendline.
Technical Analysis; Xauusd has been caped by an ascending trendline and forming clear highs and lows so far. Every dips are being bought in this incredibly short term bull run .However what's interesting is once again retesting the medium term resistance zone placed at 1831-1833.70 levels which has completely ravaged the bull runs in last three occasion following july 14, july 29 and aug 4 fractal and a big crash later on . So be ready for the new week where we may see a quadruple top rejection from this level. As a trader i need to work on the probabilities which lean more on the bear side however I will be concerned about the fakeouts where we may see market clearing sell side liquidity first where we may have better selling entries. Technically we may see price dip below 1727 level once again within two weeks time however a firm break above 1735 level would invalidate this scenario and postpone my bearish bias. For traders out there look for the firm break and retest of ascending trendline which will add more confidence to selling side.
Fundamental analysis: last couple of weeks has been harsh for gold negatively correlating assets especially DXY AND US10Y which are in a parabolic downtrend which everyone can know as us economic data are not as expected. we did see a strong upside momentum in gold as inflation concerns are rising and gold is generally used as safe heaven against inflation. However there is a lot of optimism from fed and biden's speech regarding plan to recovery of jobs which is scheduled later this week so we may see sides flipping soon as this kind of economy will not work out on longer term for us dollar as market leader.so fundamentally as well
i am expecting a bullish dollar week.
I have personally engaged my selling order with an entry of 1833.60 and a stop loss of around 100 pips . i might close my positions early if i see negative signs to my analysis and will surely add more orders if i see a clear break and retest of ascending trendline.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.