BOLD GOLD SOLD!
Updated
Gold has been suffering the last few month due to a very hawkish Fed trying to get inflation under control. Gold topped out on march 8th 2022 & is down -17.6% since then. The US CPI YOY came in yesterday at +8.3% beating expectations of 8.1% , the CPI ex food & energy also beat expectations coming in at +6.3% vs a 6.1% consensus. This fueled a rally in the USD as the market expect a 0.75% bps rate hike or maybe even more, in return Gold an the commodity currencies fell. On the 4HR chart a bear flag has formed, you should wait on a break and close below the bear for possible selling opportunities towards $1622.99-$1600 per OZ a -4.6%- (-6%) move from market current position.
Trade active
bear flag broken, US Retail sales in about 50 mins , sales will either show a resilient economy or slowing one. what are your thoughts?Trade active
Retail sales came in a bit better than expected for august along with the jobless claims. Gold is breaking my floor highlighted on the chart. If you found this information useful please share with your fellow traders.Trade active
Bearish trend is likely to continue“A weekly close below $1,675 could trigger a heavy sell-off next week. That said, the price could consolidate after Thursday’s sell-off, ahead of the FOMC meeting on 21 September.”
“Bears could extend downside price moves to $1,600 and below.”
“Immediate resistance lies at $1,700 and a break of this level would put the next resistance point at $1,735. While reversal of the trend could be possible if prices break critical level of $1,800.”
Trade active
Gold struggles to capitalize on Friday's goodish rebound from its lowest level since April 2020 and meets with a fresh supply on the first day of a new week. The XAU/USD continues losing ground through the early European session and drops to a fresh daily low, around the $1,660 area in the last hour.The intraday descent is sponsored by the emergence of fresh buying around the US dollar, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The stronger US consumer inflation data released last week all but cemented expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace.
In fact, the markets have been pricing in a small chance of a full 100 bps rate increase at this week's FOMC meeting. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
Even the prevalent risk-off environment fails to impress bullish traders or offer any support to the safe-haven gold. The rapidly rising borrowing costs, along with the economic headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, have been fueling recession fears.
Adding to this, the worsening US-China relationship tempers investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets, which is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets. In the latest development, US President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.
It, however, remains to be seen if bearish traders can maintain their dominant position or opt to lighten their bets ahead of the central bank event risks. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will announce their respective policy decisions during the latter part of the week.
In the meantime, the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks should continue to act as a headwind for gold. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful recovery attempt could be seen as a selling opportunity amid absent relevant market-moving economic data from the US.
Trade active
First Take profit Hit at $1622.99, any pullback should be seen as an opportunity for a possible sell continuation. Next Take Profit is $1570 if market can close below $1622.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.