What Does Market Really Follow?
We all know that market is normally run by based on Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Trading Sentiment. If you want to get a high result on your trade, you must combine these 3 analyses.
As USD and Gold both are safe-haven currencies and reserve currencies as well. USD and Gold have a negative co-relation. If the USD rise, Gold will drop. If the USD drops Gold will rise.
Which Fundamental Factors Are Responsible for Golds Move?
1. US Economical Reports
2. World Wide Economic Conditions
3. Man-made or Natural Disaster (For the moment Covid Situations)
4. Political or Economic Crisis
5. Central Bank's Rate Decision and some other reasons.
What to Do Firstly?
You must have a look at US economic reports. US job Market Report, CPI, Manufacturing Reports, and FED economic Overview. If most of the fundamental reports are positive from the USA, that means fundamentally USD is in a good position, which means Gold has a chance to drop.
especially CPI / Inflation reports are important for hiking bank rates. So, if you see recent most of the high-impact reports are positive, that means gold has more chance that it will drop and FED is going to deliver the hawkish statement. FED's hawkish statement will give an extra benefit to USD what is negative for Gold.
What to Do Secondly
Now see your technical chart. A trading view has many awesome tools to draw your Technical Charts. Personally, I do follow pure price action. Based on your chart analysis, find an entry rate, exit rates, and where the stop loss and profit should be put. You can use any kind of technical tools, indicators of what is suitable for you.
What To Do Thirdly?
To get the trading sentiment, Option expiry and Cot reports will help you a lot. Especially cot reports are free, so check last cot reports. Day Traders usually follow non-Commercial contract positions. if you are a day trader checks a non-commercial contract. if most of the contracts are in a short mode, that means banks, hedge funds, and other financial authorities are selling more.
commercial contracts are also very important. because they are big guns and big companies. you should also check their position. Non-Reputable contracts are not really important.
How Will I Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis and implement to my trade?
This is the final part. If you see most of the US economic reports are positive in recent months, especially job market reports, manufacturing reports, and Inflation reports. In this case, most of the time FED delivers a hawkish statement. So, you think for Buying USD and Sell Gold.
If you see US Economic reports are not supportive, then think about selling USD and buying Gold.
This is the first part. I will write details about it in my second part. till then keep reading.
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