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The support strength of 3200 should not be underestimated, but I don't think it is difficult to fall, it's just that the market is too weak.
If you say that every decline is very fierce and infinitely close to the rebound of 3200 points, then you can say that it has strong support. The problem is that it only tried on Monday and never tried to break through since then? It just started to fluctuate after 3207 points. The so-called support effect must be accompanied by a rebound and counterattack, which can prove its significance, but have you seen a big rise in gold? I can only call it a slight rebound performance. .
You have seen the rise, right? Soaring, continuous rise, retracement rise, unilateral rise, all of these premises require a steady stream of buying orders in the market, don't care why it is, it is like this when the emotional rise comes, does every rise not need any reason at all? But now you actually start to use CPI data or other news to see the rebound of gold. Isn't this originally contrary to the emotional rise? From offense to defense, you should be more static and wait until the market really goes up, not too far, to recover above 3,300 points, and then regain bullish interest, right?
Or do you think the decline is over? Yes, I once shorted and thought that 3,200, 3,100, and 3,000 could not go up, and it was over, because I was also on the defensive at that time, but what was the result?
Regarding last night's CPI, why was I able to excitedly notify everyone to short after seeing the data? The reason is very simple. Before the announcement, everyone thought that inflation would rebound in April, including me, after all, there was the impact of tariffs in April, but if there was no impact of tariffs, I would definitely think it would fall back, after all, the wage growth rate in the employment market in April was falling, and it would not cause spiral inflation. Even gold was sold in advance before the data was released, and it fell. I didn't expect that the inflation would fall back in the end, which was bullish for gold. This was already a surprise, and I couldn't help but short it after seeing it.
The data was bullish, why short?
Let me make it clear first, don't always say that gold is like this now. If you see good data, you go short, and if you see bad data, you go long. If you have this idea, you should put down your phone and work hard.
The positive CPI proves that inflation is falling. On the other hand, the US job market is very stable now, and the economic activity PMI capacity is warming up. This means that the economy will have signs of a soft landing and will not cause the so-called stagflation. Moreover, at this stage, inflation has already fallen from 9.1% to the rated target of 2%. The Federal Reserve has successfully reduced inflation. Then I ask you, what do people want gold for at this time? Why not buy risky assets? Many people can't turn this corner. Let's put it this way. If inflation really rebounds during a period of high interest rates, what do you think the Federal Reserve will do? Raise interest rates, but who will bear the systemic risks caused by your interest rate hike? Isn't the collapse of SVB Bank an example? I won't talk about the pressure on companies and households to repay debts. Your concerns about stagflation will arise, and gold will take off without saying much. I hope you can understand this logic.
So, why is there such a question as why gold doesn't rise when there are good news? Why would there be such a thing?
Oscillating market is often the most complicated to analyze, but I like this complexity because it can broaden my trading horizons.
Since Monday night, the low point headed by 3207 has started to fluctuate. Note that it is not a rebound, because it was flat until yesterday. . It was just that the final step back to 3225 formed this rising trend line. Although the angle is wider, it is at least an upward trend line, but the subsequent upward momentum is not enough.
Last night, I gave a 42 short, 50 plus, and the retracement was controlled at 60. It rebounded directly at 25V, which is equivalent to giving the strategy an opportunity to increase the entry. It did not complete the reversal, otherwise the previous high point would have been broken long ago. You are an upward trend line, and the high point must be higher than the previous wave to maintain stability. As a result, it was directly lower than the previous high this morning. What do you think I am not bearish?
Also, it is nothing to simply break the trend line, but if you break the previous low last night, you are doomed. You see, the current price is not only below the trend line, but also below 25, so there is a suspicion of a trend reversal on the right side, right? Although it cannot be called a reversal, gold has been at the bottom after a sharp drop, but as far as this rising trend line is concerned, it must turn into a falling trend line, otherwise gold will not fall when it pulls back to the trend line! Pressure has been formed here, so I know how to operate in the short term. I will directly bearish near 38, and the retracement only needs to be controlled at 50. You must look at 3200 points below.
I compare the intraday decline. The second stage of the N-shaped decline should also be 3201. As for whether you break 3200, since we can get considerable trading profits last night, I definitely have the chips to try it, so I will bearish it!
The support strength of 3200 should not be underestimated, but I don't think it is difficult to fall, it's just that the market is too weak.
If you say that every decline is very fierce and infinitely close to the rebound of 3200 points, then you can say that it has strong support. The problem is that it only tried on Monday and never tried to break through since then? It just started to fluctuate after 3207 points. The so-called support effect must be accompanied by a rebound and counterattack, which can prove its significance, but have you seen a big rise in gold? I can only call it a slight rebound performance. .
You have seen the rise, right? Soaring, continuous rise, retracement rise, unilateral rise, all of these premises require a steady stream of buying orders in the market, don't care why it is, it is like this when the emotional rise comes, does every rise not need any reason at all? But now you actually start to use CPI data or other news to see the rebound of gold. Isn't this originally contrary to the emotional rise? From offense to defense, you should be more static and wait until the market really goes up, not too far, to recover above 3,300 points, and then regain bullish interest, right?
Or do you think the decline is over? Yes, I once shorted and thought that 3,200, 3,100, and 3,000 could not go up, and it was over, because I was also on the defensive at that time, but what was the result?
Regarding last night's CPI, why was I able to excitedly notify everyone to short after seeing the data? The reason is very simple. Before the announcement, everyone thought that inflation would rebound in April, including me, after all, there was the impact of tariffs in April, but if there was no impact of tariffs, I would definitely think it would fall back, after all, the wage growth rate in the employment market in April was falling, and it would not cause spiral inflation. Even gold was sold in advance before the data was released, and it fell. I didn't expect that the inflation would fall back in the end, which was bullish for gold. This was already a surprise, and I couldn't help but short it after seeing it.
The data was bullish, why short?
Let me make it clear first, don't always say that gold is like this now. If you see good data, you go short, and if you see bad data, you go long. If you have this idea, you should put down your phone and work hard.
The positive CPI proves that inflation is falling. On the other hand, the US job market is very stable now, and the economic activity PMI capacity is warming up. This means that the economy will have signs of a soft landing and will not cause the so-called stagflation. Moreover, at this stage, inflation has already fallen from 9.1% to the rated target of 2%. The Federal Reserve has successfully reduced inflation. Then I ask you, what do people want gold for at this time? Why not buy risky assets? Many people can't turn this corner. Let's put it this way. If inflation really rebounds during a period of high interest rates, what do you think the Federal Reserve will do? Raise interest rates, but who will bear the systemic risks caused by your interest rate hike? Isn't the collapse of SVB Bank an example? I won't talk about the pressure on companies and households to repay debts. Your concerns about stagflation will arise, and gold will take off without saying much. I hope you can understand this logic.
So, why is there such a question as why gold doesn't rise when there are good news? Why would there be such a thing?
Oscillating market is often the most complicated to analyze, but I like this complexity because it can broaden my trading horizons.
Since Monday night, the low point headed by 3207 has started to fluctuate. Note that it is not a rebound, because it was flat until yesterday. . It was just that the final step back to 3225 formed this rising trend line. Although the angle is wider, it is at least an upward trend line, but the subsequent upward momentum is not enough.
Last night, I gave a 42 short, 50 plus, and the retracement was controlled at 60. It rebounded directly at 25V, which is equivalent to giving the strategy an opportunity to increase the entry. It did not complete the reversal, otherwise the previous high point would have been broken long ago. You are an upward trend line, and the high point must be higher than the previous wave to maintain stability. As a result, it was directly lower than the previous high this morning. What do you think I am not bearish?
Also, it is nothing to simply break the trend line, but if you break the previous low last night, you are doomed. You see, the current price is not only below the trend line, but also below 25, so there is a suspicion of a trend reversal on the right side, right? Although it cannot be called a reversal, gold has been at the bottom after a sharp drop, but as far as this rising trend line is concerned, it must turn into a falling trend line, otherwise gold will not fall when it pulls back to the trend line! Pressure has been formed here, so I know how to operate in the short term. I will directly bearish near 38, and the retracement only needs to be controlled at 50. You must look at 3200 points below.
I compare the intraday decline. The second stage of the N-shaped decline should also be 3201. As for whether you break 3200, since we can get considerable trading profits last night, I definitely have the chips to try it, so I will bearish it!
Trade active
I said it is impossible for gold to stop falling, it has already fallen below 3200Trade closed: target reached
I said the direction remains unchanged, congratulations to everyone on your profits
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Our goal is simple, to provide the most professional guidance for free to help everyone make a profit
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.