1. Core drivers of fundamentals
Geopolitical risks surge
Middle East situation escalates: Israel launches a large-scale ground offensive codenamed "Gideon's Chariot" in Gaza, hitting more than 670 Hamas targets, exacerbating the risk of regional conflict.
Russia-Ukraine conflict worsens: Russia launches the largest air strike on Ukraine since 2022, dispatching 273 drones to attack key cities such as Kiev. After the breakdown of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the two sides have significant differences in their positions.
Iran nuclear issue deadlock: Iran's Foreign Minister clearly stated that it will continue uranium enrichment activities, the US-Iran negotiations are progressing slowly, and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation supports the safe-haven demand for gold.
The US dollar credit crisis and the Fed's policy game
US sovereign rating downgrade: Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to Aa1, pointing out that the debt/GDP ratio will rise to 134% in 2035, exacerbating market concerns about the long-term credit of the US dollar and driving funds to safe-haven assets such as gold.
Fed policy divergence: Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, but Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance, expectations for rate cuts this year cooled (only 8.3% probability in June), and the US dollar index rebounded to 100.63 in the short term, suppressing gold prices.
Economic data and trade situation
China-US tariff easing: China and the United States announced the suspension of some tariffs, and the US tariff rate on China dropped from 145% to 30%. Market risk appetite rebounded briefly, but US Treasury Secretary Benson warned that if no agreement was reached, the "reciprocal" tariff rate would be restored, and trade uncertainty remained.
China's central bank continued to buy gold: China increased its gold reserves for 6 consecutive months, reduced its holdings of US debt by US$18.9 billion in March, and the proportion of gold reserves rose to 4.5%, which supported gold prices in the long term.
2. Key technical points
Support level:
Short-term: US$3180-3200 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track and psychological barrier).
Medium-term: US$3150-3160 (weekly trend line and Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance level:
Above: 3265-3280 USD (previous high pressure zone and upper track of daily Bollinger band), after breaking through, it may challenge 3300-3350 USD.
Technical signal:
Daily MACD bottom divergence, RSI rebounded from oversold zone, showing short-term rebound momentum; but the 4-hour chart shows that the Bollinger band narrowed, and attention should be paid to the direction of the range breakthrough.
3. Optimal trading strategy
Short-term operation (intraday to intraweek)
Bull opportunity:
Entry conditions: Gold price rebounds to 3180-3200 USD range and stabilizes, and the US dollar index does not break through the 100.50 resistance.
Target: 3260-3280 USD, stop loss set below 3150.
Short opportunity:
Entry conditions: Gold price rebounds to 3265-3280 range and encounters resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 100 mark.
Target: 3220-3200 USD, stop loss set above 3290.
Medium-term strategy (monthly level)
Bullish logic: The central bank's demand for gold purchases (more than 1,000 tons in 2024), stagflation risks and the normalization of geopolitical conflicts support the long-term upward trend.
Entry time: If the gold price falls back to the 3150-3180 area without breaking, long orders can be opened in batches, with a stop loss of 3100 and a target of 3300-3400 USD.
Risk control points
Strict stop loss: short-term stop loss does not exceed 2% of the total position, and medium-term stop loss does not exceed 5%.
Event avoidance: Pay attention to the Fed's June interest rate meeting and changes in the geopolitical situation, and reduce positions before the data is released.
IV. Risk warning
Risk of sudden policy changes: If the Fed releases hawkish signals or the Sino-US trade negotiations break down, it may cause violent shocks.
Technical pullback risk: Gold has risen too much in the short term, so we need to be alert to profit-taking pressure. If it falls below the support of 3150, it may drop to 3100 US dollars.
Liquidity risk: The volatility of US stocks (VIX) fluctuates at a high level, which may trigger cross-market selling transmission.
Summary
Today's gold trend is dominated by geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis. It is recommended to operate in the range in the short term, and long orders can be arranged in the medium term by taking advantage of the pullback. Key operating principles: light positions, strict stop losses, and priority attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3180-3280 US dollar range. In the long run, gold is still supported by structural benefits, but we need to be alert to the risk of high volatility in the short term.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Geopolitical risks surge
Middle East situation escalates: Israel launches a large-scale ground offensive codenamed "Gideon's Chariot" in Gaza, hitting more than 670 Hamas targets, exacerbating the risk of regional conflict.
Russia-Ukraine conflict worsens: Russia launches the largest air strike on Ukraine since 2022, dispatching 273 drones to attack key cities such as Kiev. After the breakdown of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the two sides have significant differences in their positions.
Iran nuclear issue deadlock: Iran's Foreign Minister clearly stated that it will continue uranium enrichment activities, the US-Iran negotiations are progressing slowly, and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation supports the safe-haven demand for gold.
The US dollar credit crisis and the Fed's policy game
US sovereign rating downgrade: Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to Aa1, pointing out that the debt/GDP ratio will rise to 134% in 2035, exacerbating market concerns about the long-term credit of the US dollar and driving funds to safe-haven assets such as gold.
Fed policy divergence: Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, but Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance, expectations for rate cuts this year cooled (only 8.3% probability in June), and the US dollar index rebounded to 100.63 in the short term, suppressing gold prices.
Economic data and trade situation
China-US tariff easing: China and the United States announced the suspension of some tariffs, and the US tariff rate on China dropped from 145% to 30%. Market risk appetite rebounded briefly, but US Treasury Secretary Benson warned that if no agreement was reached, the "reciprocal" tariff rate would be restored, and trade uncertainty remained.
China's central bank continued to buy gold: China increased its gold reserves for 6 consecutive months, reduced its holdings of US debt by US$18.9 billion in March, and the proportion of gold reserves rose to 4.5%, which supported gold prices in the long term.
2. Key technical points
Support level:
Short-term: US$3180-3200 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track and psychological barrier).
Medium-term: US$3150-3160 (weekly trend line and Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance level:
Above: 3265-3280 USD (previous high pressure zone and upper track of daily Bollinger band), after breaking through, it may challenge 3300-3350 USD.
Technical signal:
Daily MACD bottom divergence, RSI rebounded from oversold zone, showing short-term rebound momentum; but the 4-hour chart shows that the Bollinger band narrowed, and attention should be paid to the direction of the range breakthrough.
3. Optimal trading strategy
Short-term operation (intraday to intraweek)
Bull opportunity:
Entry conditions: Gold price rebounds to 3180-3200 USD range and stabilizes, and the US dollar index does not break through the 100.50 resistance.
Target: 3260-3280 USD, stop loss set below 3150.
Short opportunity:
Entry conditions: Gold price rebounds to 3265-3280 range and encounters resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 100 mark.
Target: 3220-3200 USD, stop loss set above 3290.
Medium-term strategy (monthly level)
Bullish logic: The central bank's demand for gold purchases (more than 1,000 tons in 2024), stagflation risks and the normalization of geopolitical conflicts support the long-term upward trend.
Entry time: If the gold price falls back to the 3150-3180 area without breaking, long orders can be opened in batches, with a stop loss of 3100 and a target of 3300-3400 USD.
Risk control points
Strict stop loss: short-term stop loss does not exceed 2% of the total position, and medium-term stop loss does not exceed 5%.
Event avoidance: Pay attention to the Fed's June interest rate meeting and changes in the geopolitical situation, and reduce positions before the data is released.
IV. Risk warning
Risk of sudden policy changes: If the Fed releases hawkish signals or the Sino-US trade negotiations break down, it may cause violent shocks.
Technical pullback risk: Gold has risen too much in the short term, so we need to be alert to profit-taking pressure. If it falls below the support of 3150, it may drop to 3100 US dollars.
Liquidity risk: The volatility of US stocks (VIX) fluctuates at a high level, which may trigger cross-market selling transmission.
Summary
Today's gold trend is dominated by geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis. It is recommended to operate in the range in the short term, and long orders can be arranged in the medium term by taking advantage of the pullback. Key operating principles: light positions, strict stop losses, and priority attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3180-3280 US dollar range. In the long run, gold is still supported by structural benefits, but we need to be alert to the risk of high volatility in the short term.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.