Gold soaring on geopolitical pressure

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Technical analysis: No surprises so far as Gold still didn’t invalidated the last barrier of #2,662.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last upside wave towards the #2-Month old Resistance zone. Daily and Hourly charts turned Bullish again but based on the Weekly chart’s (#1W) candle regression since end of September, it is safer to Sell after every red engulfing Daily candles (those were on June #4, July #9 and August #2). Bond Yields are on critical crossroads and should stay above first Support, as their spiral downtrend had Bullish after-effect on Gold (Weekly chart is however on # +2.27%). Gold is now Technically and Fundamentally equipped for Buying sequence in continuation, but it is still early to speculate on exact timing since this was last session of Trading week. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks, Gold should gain value with every Hourly 4 chart’s candle minimum towards #2,672.80 if #2,652.80 benchmark holds (Higher High’s local peak extension).


Fundamental analysis: Gold is holding it’s ground on the Hourly 4 chart (Ranged (leans to Bullish) U.S. session opening and further Hours came as no Technical surprise) as the Price-action rallies, staying above Daily chart’s former Symmetrical Triangle but preserving the Bullish underlying Short-term trend. As long as Gold keep #2,652.80 Support intact, I give more probabilities to the upside - since Price-action failed to test Support and Higher High’s Lower zone extension. The reason is Bearish Intra-day trend on DX (but Bullish Medium-term) and Gold used as an Hedge against Inflation and recession fears rising globally. The Price-action should soon connect with the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance, which was a trend setter lately and every time it didn’t succeed to hold, Gold risen more than #35 points within #2-session horizon. Personally, after weak Bearish display throughout yesterday’s session, I still favor going Bullish on the Short-term, but ideally I would want to see local High’s broken firmly to be more certain.


My position: Even though Technicals are switched to Bull side due recent Fundamental rise, Buyers have to be extra cautious as DX delivered #52-Week High's test few sessions ago which is a messenger that Gold may be ready for Medium-term Bearish reversal. I will look to re-Buy Gold as long as #2,652.80 holds. I am back after my vacations break and expect usual Daily analysis here as normal.

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