Long

Updated

Bullish Bias

As per chart, price sitting at weekly demand and supply fill at 1210 and I expect we will rebound from here with minimum exit target 1269.
Below 1210, risk to challenge is 1204 Key Level.
SL 1209

Trade active

I already have position 2 weeks ago at 1211

Note

Nobody said it was easy..

Note

So where are we now?

After market hit my SL at 1209 for 1211 position, market sharply fall to my next key level 1204.60. i've pending order with SL 1203.50 and now positive running with $8. I close 10% of 1204 running profit here (1211) to recover previous lose.

Note

For market to continue upside, price must sustain above 1213. Breaking of 1204, we attract 1170.56 demand area and extreme level 114X.

Note

Note

Very smooth bounced from my 1204 key level. First exit target still same. On hourly four progress

Note

We can move SL to Breakeven to protect our position. My job now is take care of the risks by play with dynamic trailing stop.

Note

Are you over analyze & over specuate market? No, dont do that. u're not scalper. Swing trading just set, sit and monitor 1 hour/day once you have positive running position.

I stil don't see stable trend yet, but from hourly four structure progress seems good starting.

Note

Why I said good starting? As we can see below, other scenario hourly four foraming falling wedge. Falling wedge is bullish divergence. you dont need colorful indicator to spot divergence, just simple trendline can determine fall or rise depends on timescale you use. Our key resistance is 1217, market trade above 1216 and sustain outside of sub Falling trendline, price can push to 1247-1248.

Note

Last but not least, do not over analyze, do not over speculate and do not over thinking. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Calculate risk, set your order, set stop loss and set your exit profit. The rest, leave to the market do the job. You cannot control market movement but the only thing you can control is your risk. Always put risk management set as a priority - Lilie

Note

Good progress right? But still dont see any stable trend yet. Nearest Support 1214

Note

Price must sustain above 1217

https://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WWcPMqwg/

Note

For me too early to call 1204 declined. We actually just sideways inside of the flag even we already broke giant falling wedge

Note

Today I saw alot of Stops get wipe out including mine. From COT report, yes we on extremely bullish but we cannot jump on the spot to go long without consider at which key level possible price to rebound. Usually I never care about COT because most of the time COT is noise but from current condition which reach unusual extremes I taking COT figure seriously. Today market break 1204 key level and expecting hunt next key level. since 3 weeks ago, I witness there is huge sell stops order waiting to trigger just below 1200 round number level. Expecting another one more downside flush follow by violent rally. They need to sell off in order to 'BUY BACK'.

Note

We drop below 1200 as per briefing 2 days ago right? I executed backup plan using sell stop at 1200. This is just temporary sell while waiting flushing day finish. Our support 1182.12 but I think we might drop below 1180 somewhere at 1177.

Note

I am watching DXY key level at 96.92. But from my practice, I dont believe any correlation.

Note

From my view, gold can make violent rally after they found the floor

Note

I will try to hedging my stuff if I saw potential price to ride.

Note

Update position:-

Bought 1211 hit SL at 1209 - Fully recovered
Bought 1204 hit SL at 1203 - Fully Recovered
Short 1200 positive running profit -Trailing Stop (adapt to price) Exit target not yet decide.

Note

DXY Sitting perfectly at 69.92 key level

Note

Bought spot gold at 1183 SL tight below 1182.11. Hedging

Note

This is just pre-market IMO, nothing hype about small retracement. We can scalping.

Note

A ha I just left from screen about 1 hour, you kicked out my stop loss. 1183 hit SL at 1181.90.This is why I hedging, to eliminate lost.

Note

1177 reached. not yet guys, not yet. selling still intact. keep holding 1200 and ill wait

Note

Bought again 1174 and for now SL adapt to price

Note

Set breakeven for 1174 position. Lazy to monitor. Hold 1200 short position, since i dont see any big momentum yet.

Note

Today I catch falling knife 1163 before leave screen to morning yoga and closed 70% short position (1200) running profit. 1174 hit breakeven. From daily view we broke too many falling support, lets see if we can bypass those broken trendline. Since 1170 breakout from table, its hard for me to decide 1160 just correction or reversal. Lets monitor stage by stage. Hedging position under trailing stop. Sub support 1193

Note

We bouce from 1160 but let me highlight again, we broke 1170.56. 1170.56 is my benchmark level for trend reversal. Market must sustain above 1193.

Note

Fail to sustain above 1193, we might fall to monthly support 1150 or maybe lower.

Note

Glad to see gold trading above 1193. 1200 partial short position hit trailing stop at 1194. Ill focus on next resistance.

Closed 10% of 1163 long position to cover commision fees and stop loss cost, in case market against my poisiton. :) So I lose nothing from this trade.

Note

From hourly one progress

Note

Hourly four progress

Note

Market trade below 1241 IMO still under bear territory.

Note

IMO 1197 will be temporary resistance. I short with another account from 1196 SL 1197.XX hedged long from 1163.XX. Drop below 1188, might visit 1180. Im ready to take risk if short position hit SL.

Note

From my weekly view

Note

Upss what happen here? 1196 hit SL at 1197.80. Took another 10% running profit of 1163 position.

Note

We bounce above Neckline 1180, looks good so far. Sustain above 1206, expecting rally to 1241. I took another 10% running profit here and set 1163 trailing stop below neckline support.

Note

From daily view, above 1206, ill focus on 1241. even too early to talk about 1310 Neckline breakout, but breakout daily falling resistance, can drive market to the level. Nearest suppor 1197. 1163 protect position and let it run.

Note:- This is swing trading.

Note

On hourly four progress, we sustain above 1206. Break of flag resistance expecting rally to 1241. But fail to break flag resistance, might be temporary resistance and retrace.

Note

Commercial break - DXY fall just few pips from my key level 69.92 :)

Note

96.92**

Note

Seems 1197 misfire again same like 1180. just few dollar. Lets see what next month base/floor offer for low price.

Note

Seems they wont touch my PO at 1197. Its time to cancel the order. Ill calculate new level where is the safest pullback again.

Note

Hold 1163 with trailing stop

Note

after few weeks we still ranging?..yea I can see that. Poor internet connection here (geneva). I saw massive buy stop above 1122

Note

1222**

Note

Difficult to attach chart here. Once price break daily TL (key 1211), max pullback 1206.

Note

I want share cluster and liquidity from my data supply to brief what exactly happen in the market, but internet connection too slow. cluster level to watch 124X

Note

Since im not day trader and not even close to scalper, i dont need to change view every day or everytime market built new structure. 1208 is POC level. I repeat same thing why the price wont change. Below 1190, 1180 still in schedule. Im aware that level as a downsinde risks.

Hold 1163 & 1190 with dynamic trailing stop.

Note

Ah forgot to note here, before end of month, we will experience a series of WHIPSAW. Trade wisely *wink* - Lilie

Note

Instant long at 1181, we have bid at 1178.63.

1190 hit trailing stop.

Note

SL below bid

Note

Im waiting for price to repair 1180 and fill the order since 5 weeks ago after flushout done. Risk on spot at 1178.XX still intact.

Note

Nearest support 1184. For market to create momentum, price must sustain above 1193

Note

We sitting at 1193 as per briefing 3 hours ago. Price must sustain above 1193.

hold 1163 & 1181 with trailing stop :) happy weekend

Note

My 3rd buying position at 1184 triggered. I didnt notice that. Just set and forget. My view remain same, price must sustain above 1193 for market to create momentum.

Note

We just breach and exploded above 1193. This is the momentum what I mean. Move SL to trailing stop.

Nearest support for now is 1192

Hold 1163, 1181 & 1184. I will took profit for 1184 position soon.

Note

Lets see if we can by pass 1210-1213 next 2 days.

Note

Still hold 1163 & 1181. Last week took profit at 1207 for 1184 position. Not much we can do here, market just play with the range. I think too risky to add new position since we're not going anywhere. Stop loss hunter everywhere.

Note

Currently we trading above barrier and price breakout major falling resistance and break 8 weeks accumulation phase. Im expecting we heading to 1241 and might reject a little bit before continue to the upside level. Exit target remain same.

Hold 1163 & 1181.

Note

Today we trading at 1239. I took profit at 1239 for 1181 position.

Note

I still expect we are going to touch 1241 level. Nearest support for now 1228.

Hold 1163.

Note

There is confluence level attract me at 1225. If 1228 cannot hold, I will closely monitor that level.

Note

For now 1235 still in the radar but I dont know when price going to go up again. The best action is just wait market come to u rather than chasing them.

Note

1225 triggered. SL 1224.60

Note

So far we bounce from 1225 right? lets see if we can bypass 1229 :)

Note

We just bounce from 1225, there is hidden order I saw in my Order Flow. Intraday can close at 1235 but swing need to be extra careful here. My target remains same as per daily exit target.

Our main key level resistance still too far from here, 1290 level but break above will give bulls some momentum and long term control.

Note

Still hold latest position 1225 and major buying position 1163. I plan to exit at 1241 for 1225 position. And I might sell for short term at 1242 exit somewhere 1232-1230. Hope everything work smooth as per planning.

Note

Just turn on internet, Opss! I did it again haha. I already give early signal that price gonna hit 1241 :) 1225 hit TP at 1242. Pending sell order 1242 triggered SL 1243.89 also hit TP at 1232. Easy money even I dont monitor my trade. Set and Forget.

Note

I love liquidity data, we can track future orders within 5-7 hours but for first 4 hours need to monitor closely. Wrong reading and wrong calculation (bids,asks, spread & volume) can give bad decision. So far so good, its worth for me. I dont need to babysit position. Gudnite and happy weekend.

Note

I want to take risk to go long from here, 1227 and plan to exit at 1241 again. SL 1226.50

Note

From what I see on hourly four, we ranging in the bear flag and price still play in the flag range. Last friday I sold at 1242 because I saw huge contracts dump. Usually dumping price, market need to repair. We must sustain above 1224 to visit 1241 back. BTW I still hold major buying position 1163. I will play day trading or scalping mode if price still move just between in the bear flag range.

Note

Hopefully my plan works smooth.

Note

Adjusted SL to 1225.30

Note

I leave screen for 9 hours and market drop to 1224 just in 30 minutes and bounce back 1 hour later. No honey, u wont get my stop loss this time, im expecting they gonna drop another 3 bucks to 1224 range level. I did state price must sustain above 1224.

1227 buying position with open stop loss and 1224 pending order triggered with SL 1223.21.

Now set trailing stop for 1227 position and 1224 stick with stop loss. We are going to repair 1241.

Note

Lets go sauna and update instagram :)) and leave it position to the market. I dont like to babysit my position.

Note

We will play inside of the bear flag range.

Note

We broke bear flag support. 1227 hit trailing stop, 1224 hit SL.

Nearest resistance 1226 and technically market going to retest 1207 breakout point level.

Note

Here is daily view, remains the same. Price shot to 1240 region to retest major support breakout and expecting back to neckline below.

Even Im a bit skeptical we will trade below 1200 again but I must admit that I should concern 1193 level too.

Note

Sorry 1194**

I will wait next opportunity to enter market once I get confirmation. For now just stay sidelines and hold 1163 major buying position.

Note

1207 Order triggered. SL 1205.49

Waiting this since oct 30.

Happy weeekend.

Note

1207 hit SL.

OK there is confluence level at 1202-1200 and we have bid at 1200. We might bounce for short term. I will take a risk to long SL adapt to price.

Nearest resistance 1214. Failed to close above, I will short them and close long position because price tend to retest 1180 (Gold Comex) & 1173 (XAU). And the situation seems not good for gold because u will face another flushout party again.

Note

And did u know if they breach those price, how nasty the market can do? Extremely nasty. This is bad for bull to hold any position.

Note

The day I call for 1242 short, is the day I saw huge contract dump which can push price below 1200 if no one defend that area.

Note

Today we drop below 1200. Ive hold 1202, 1200 and reenter 1197 when price slipped down.Sht! I never hold such big -floating position like this before.

So price bounce from 1196 to1205. Cutloss position 1202 for $1 dollar lose. Closed manually 1200 with $1 profit. 1197 set trailing stop. This trade not convince me at all.

Running position 1197 & 1163. If I notice price fail to sustained above 1214, I'll closed all and start short them. Nearest resistance remains same - 1214

Note

Buenos Días

Hola from Spain. Lately busy with my travelin trip till enf of Feb.

Still hold my bullish position 1197 & 1163. My advice do not short with this kind of market. Dont try to be hero. We are going to break 1243. Our next key level is 1255.63 and nearest support for now 1233. U better wait, u have no choice.

adiós.

Note

A ha, very nice pullback at 1233 support. You,ve been warned. Dont short this market. We will break 1250 soon.

This thread become too long to scroll. Im gonna update at my backup thread that I already prepare with same trading plan.

Lilie-Lily

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Lilie-Lily