On Wednesday, the US dollar index strengthened and closed up 0.47% at 99.86 as the Fed remained on hold and Powell reiterated his willingness to wait for a clearer outlook before taking action. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.2740%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.7870%.
Due to the market's optimism about trade negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, spot gold fell more than $60 during the day and finally closed down 2.12% at $3,364.07.
From the perspective of cyclical performance, there is a high probability of a wave of adjustment space under the three consecutive positive lines on the daily line, and the intensity of this adjustment will not be small. It is possible that the big negative swallows the positive and goes directly below 3,300. If this happens, it can be said that gold will be difficult to rise this week. On Thursday and Friday, there may be a volatile decline or high-level fluctuations. From the perspective of the H4 cycle, a big negative line closed, covering the previous continuous rise, and breaking the support of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. This wave may continue to fall to the Bollinger middle rail near 3300, but if it is a high-level shock, the Bollinger middle rail is not broken, and it may rise again to the high point of 3430. Therefore, gold has experienced a big rise and fall in this cycle, and now it is possible to rise or fall. In the short-term cycle, pay attention to the support effect of 3355 under the weakness of the Asian session. If it does not break, you can continue to be bullish, and the upper target is 3430.
Overall, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is recommended to buy on pullbacks and sell on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 3397-3420 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3365-3355 line of support.
Buy range: 3375-3374, SL: 3365, TP: 3395-3405
Sell range: 3418-3420, SL: 3430, TP: 3400-3390
Key points:
First support: 3370, second support: 3365, third support: 3355
First resistance: 3410, second resistance: 3420, third resistance: 3430
Due to the market's optimism about trade negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, spot gold fell more than $60 during the day and finally closed down 2.12% at $3,364.07.
From the perspective of cyclical performance, there is a high probability of a wave of adjustment space under the three consecutive positive lines on the daily line, and the intensity of this adjustment will not be small. It is possible that the big negative swallows the positive and goes directly below 3,300. If this happens, it can be said that gold will be difficult to rise this week. On Thursday and Friday, there may be a volatile decline or high-level fluctuations. From the perspective of the H4 cycle, a big negative line closed, covering the previous continuous rise, and breaking the support of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. This wave may continue to fall to the Bollinger middle rail near 3300, but if it is a high-level shock, the Bollinger middle rail is not broken, and it may rise again to the high point of 3430. Therefore, gold has experienced a big rise and fall in this cycle, and now it is possible to rise or fall. In the short-term cycle, pay attention to the support effect of 3355 under the weakness of the Asian session. If it does not break, you can continue to be bullish, and the upper target is 3430.
Overall, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is recommended to buy on pullbacks and sell on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 3397-3420 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3365-3355 line of support.
Buy range: 3375-3374, SL: 3365, TP: 3395-3405
Sell range: 3418-3420, SL: 3430, TP: 3400-3390
Key points:
First support: 3370, second support: 3365, third support: 3355
First resistance: 3410, second resistance: 3420, third resistance: 3430
Note
Take profits Note
News: Gold prices turned to fall as market expectations for the US and UK to announce a trade agreement, or at least reach an agreement framework, increased. During the day, attention can be paid to the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report at the end of the European session. As well as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 (10,000), the US wholesale sales monthly rate in March, and the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations in April. The former expects a 25 basis point rate cut, and the meeting is dovish, which will be good for the US dollar and suppress gold prices.Technical: Gold closed with a cross star on the daily line, which is likely to be just a correction of the excessive deviation rate. The high point of the 1-hour cycle moved down, and the low point was horizontal, forming a falling relay pattern. The short-term adjustment is likely to be in place, and there is still a price low. In the evening, the short-term focus is on the upper 3352 line resistance, and the break will look at the 3363 line; the focus is on the 3318 line support below, and the break will look at the 3305 line support! Personally, it is recommended to sell at highs; GOLD watershed: $3352!
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.