Gold futures are trading at all time highs. Gold is up +25% YTD. Based on this GOL 4hr chart uptrend channel, I am planning a short gold trade. As you can see we are getting close to the short entry zone (or take profit if you're still long). Gold is ranked #1 asset by market cap of $17.5 Trillion. So I wouldn't want to step in front of this train prematurely. Especially if the reversal signal is a blow off top. However, based on US cumulative inflation, gold is overextended as an inflation hedge.
1 : 4 risk : reward ratio trade idea short = 2615 stop = 2630 profit = 2555
US cumulative inflation vs gold yearly returns YTD 2024 2.5% vs 25% 2023 3.3% vs 13% 2022 4.1% vs 0% 2021 8% vs -3.5% 2020 4.7% vs 24% 2019 1.2% vs 19% 2018 1.8% vs -2% 2017 2.4% vs 14% 2016 2.1% vs 8.5% 2015 1.3% vs -10.5%
2015 until 2024 US cumulative inflation vs gold ROI US past 10 yrs cumulative inflation = 32.8% Gold 10 year ROI = 149% Gold 10 yr average ROI = 14.9% / year
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