There is growing potential that a major price top has formed, particularly after the break below the November low, which has increased the probability of this scenario. The move down from the February high appears to be a three-wave structure, and I am watching for a bounce from the current region. However, this could simply be a B-wave in the yellow scenario, setting up for much lower prices.
At this stage, it's too early to confirm a major top with certainty. The structure of the next rally will provide crucial insights. The current downward move is not yet a clear five-wave decline, leaving the door open for higher prices in the white scenario. However, even that becomes increasingly unlikely with a break below $157.50.
For now, the working thesis is that a major top has formed, but confirmation of new highs would only come with a break above $196.69. In the short term, the price should ideally react to the current region, but we need to see a break above $173 (closing the last gap) to indicate a local low is in place. If that happens, we could be in a B-wave, which would likely target the $183 to $196 zone before the next major decision point.
At this stage, it's too early to confirm a major top with certainty. The structure of the next rally will provide crucial insights. The current downward move is not yet a clear five-wave decline, leaving the door open for higher prices in the white scenario. However, even that becomes increasingly unlikely with a break below $157.50.
For now, the working thesis is that a major top has formed, but confirmation of new highs would only come with a break above $196.69. In the short term, the price should ideally react to the current region, but we need to see a break above $173 (closing the last gap) to indicate a local low is in place. If that happens, we could be in a B-wave, which would likely target the $183 to $196 zone before the next major decision point.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.