8/12/24 - $gps - Not on sale at $22, buy teens
8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: $NYSE:GPS
Not on sale at $22, buy teens
- great brand, turned it around, good product for "recession"
- google trends and stonk seem to correlate well, clearly a lot of the benefits of results since 2023 have been priced in
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=US&q=/m/01yfp7&hl=en
- consider 30% of the capital stack is debt (~12 bn enterprise value vs. 8 bn cap). so to get a true PE let's adjust stock at $22 up by (12/8) or 50%. $22 x 1.5 = $33
- multiple on EPS is likely a function of '25 vs. '24 growth (b/c the '24 growth vs. '23 is already in the stock). '25 YoY EPS is +10% vs. '24 (consensus). let's round up and give the benefit of $2. so 33/2 = 16.5x
- 16.5x isn't objective "cheap", but if you continue to think the results will surprise to the upside, you're probably closer to a $25 stock into YE. Not amazing risk/reward in my book, especially since i like to have larger position sizes and can't justify taking this to 2-5% at this pt.
- i'd prefer to be a buyer in the teens if the stock price gets there. I've set a target at $18 to take another look, if/ does get there. so far the consumer brand(s) i prefer continue to be
CELH > $LULU.
- gl to the holders, LMK if i've missed anything obvious. of course would like to see it thru a different lens (always!)
V
Not on sale at $22, buy teens
- great brand, turned it around, good product for "recession"
- google trends and stonk seem to correlate well, clearly a lot of the benefits of results since 2023 have been priced in
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=US&q=/m/01yfp7&hl=en
- consider 30% of the capital stack is debt (~12 bn enterprise value vs. 8 bn cap). so to get a true PE let's adjust stock at $22 up by (12/8) or 50%. $22 x 1.5 = $33
- multiple on EPS is likely a function of '25 vs. '24 growth (b/c the '24 growth vs. '23 is already in the stock). '25 YoY EPS is +10% vs. '24 (consensus). let's round up and give the benefit of $2. so 33/2 = 16.5x
- 16.5x isn't objective "cheap", but if you continue to think the results will surprise to the upside, you're probably closer to a $25 stock into YE. Not amazing risk/reward in my book, especially since i like to have larger position sizes and can't justify taking this to 2-5% at this pt.
- i'd prefer to be a buyer in the teens if the stock price gets there. I've set a target at $18 to take another look, if/ does get there. so far the consumer brand(s) i prefer continue to be
CELH > $LULU.- gl to the holders, LMK if i've missed anything obvious. of course would like to see it thru a different lens (always!)
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.