Long

Updated

GAP Post Q1 2024 Earnings

Been following this one for the past couple earning sessions.Benefited from its recent report. Forward guidance looking strong and price action of course demostrated that witha 28%+ move. GAP is looking strong for the year post Q1 2024. Expecting a bullish continuation to retest that 35$ region that has acted as long-term resistance/support.

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We did close above the previous March high but keep an eye on a possible retracement to the 23$ region before a second leg

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Still holding above that previous March high but a hard wick formed on the daily chart is showing signs that the bulls are losing control. Opened up a small, short position during today's session and will be looking for further confirmation withinnthe next couple days.

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up over 250% on my short position, expecting more downside on the intraday

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Those puts are really printing. Current short now up over 500%. I did take some profit but i believe more downside is upon us. Thats a textbook reversal on the daily timeframe!

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Still expect more downside, profits were taken and will restructure my short if we get a bounce up

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There's the bounce we were expecting, the trend is still favoring the downside and i remain bearish on GAP for the short term.

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Wouldn't be surprised if we see the price bounce to somewhere around 27$ before continuing its downtrend as shown below to 23$. That would be a great add on or entry point if price shows us further shorter downside

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GAP looked weak today despite many stocks rallying after the lower-than-expected CPI report. GAP didnt do much and formed a big red candle on the 4H chart and nearly touching my deadcat target. This was good enough for me to re-enter my short. I expect downside to continue to 23$ range .

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So today's price action was interesting. Markets looked weak and at one point we were down nearly 4% and my restructure puts were up over 50%. However, we did somewhat recover during the 2nd half of today's session and only closed around -2%

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Going back to the daily i must say i still lean bearish, this chart looks objectively bearish. We have created a swing high, followed by a swing low and lower high. We have also closed below yesterdays close. Lets see what tomorrow has to offer us.

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BIG drop today as the markets fall post FOMC. Short position now up at nearly 200% total. I think we can fall further but don't really want to take that weekend risk. Will realize some profits before close today and hold the rest.

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I can definetely feel the bulls presence more and more now considering how we finished off today. We did close below yesterdays close as well as just barely closing below that previous swing low from June 10th and to me that's still bearish.

Trade closed manually

And there's the bulls making a stand. Due to the volatility and nature of my short term options, I did trail my stop to lock in profits and as result my short position is now fully closed

We have not broken the current downward trend just yet and could be forming a lower high at the moment, lets see what tomorrow had to offer us

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On Tuesday GAP fell to some selling pressure and Wednesday markets were closed. Looking at this 4hr chart we have been tracking it appears to be forming another lower high since its big earnings jump back in late May. Let's pay attention to price action these coming sessions.

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back in

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Price action today for GAP wass interesting. We opened low and sold off early in the morning but leveled of during the 2nd half of the day. Judging by how hard the markedts fell today. specifically big tech, I expected GAP to be dragged down along with them.

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I expected price to fall very rapidly today but we are currently holding this 25$ area, a 10% move down can proove very lucrative but there is a possibility we range around the 25$ range

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We got the lower high today, let's hope for that lower low tomorrow!

Trade closed manually

Closed out my position don't like to hold over weekends, GAP began to rise in the last 20 min of the session. Locked in around a 50% total gain. chart looks like it wants to bounce up but I will be wafting for another entry for the downside

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Back in the trade

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Entry was finely timed today as those puts were up 50% at one -point but the bulls really held the ground on gap despite the overall market sentiment today. We finished green and that's not what i want to see in the short term as it can start indicating a ranging of price. Tempting but I opted not to add onn to my position near close and will await further downside confirmation during tomorrow's session.

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Heres what we got going for us:

The trend is our friend. A series of lower highs and lows.
Clear rejection and swing point at the 0.382 FIB level with trendline confluence and RSI rejection
And a failure of breaking out the overall trend today near the end of the session with RSI confluence

Trade closed manually

let's update this!

What a curve ball! So last session we saw GAP jump over 4% which was a BIG surprise to me. My stop loss was jumped over and i wasn't quite sure why the huge jump was catalyzed. I still don't tbh but these things happen sometimes. its just a part of the game!

Here is what I did: NOTHING

I honestly just waited. Waited to see what would transpire and learn from this. Im glad i didnt buy more on Jun 24 before the close but in hindsight I'm mad i didnt capitalize on the jump.

A clear lower low has been created following the gap close and my outs regained their previous value before the jump. I thought the rally would be shortl lived and im glad i held my position. Sometimes it pays off to just sit back and wait. I wasnt really willing to risk more and didnt mind losing what i had on the table in case pirce kept shooting up

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drew this the other day and as i have mentioned in the past couple comments, the bulls are becoming more and more present and i feared price would being to range

this looks like the start of a reaccumulating period to me and we are holding that short term support nicely

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For this reason, I decided to fully close my GAP shorts as I think my capital can be put to better use elsewhere (cough cough ANF/ NVDA cough cough) since to me the downside momentum is dying. We could still get a sharp move down the current support back at 23$ range which could proove to be lucrative but i think it will be a slower bleed than a fast one and options are very reliant on volatility which im not willing to really risk.

Backat our daily chart the EMAs are catching up, i think price can still touch 23# and ill be looking to accumulate shares for the next leg up. Will keep updating this but not as often.

i remain bullish on gap for 2024! Let's get it next earnings!

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sheeeesh! there is the 23$ touch we have been waiting for! if you are long on GAP, this area is a great point to start accumulating shares and dollar cost averaging (DCA).

23$ - 20$ is a great range to buy in slowly, we got 56 days till next earnings!

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here is a weekly chart. you never know 100% what price will do but we could possibly get bounce off that POC . The safest thing is always to DCA.

Best of luck!

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This is dropping faster than i thought it would

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this might be due for a bounce soon

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i think we can capitalize on a possible short soon, there was a gap left around 24.20$ that coincides with the dropping 50 EMA and 0.382 Fib level. Price can jump to fill the gap and form a a lower high in the overall trend. This can happen as soon as tomorrow if not wed or Friday. I will be looking for an entry point around that area. if price does not follow that plan i will not enter short and let it be

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Alright what a week so far, GAP is up 3.83% on the day, so far so good this is what we expected, i haven't entered short here just yet, practicing patience here but i think we can touch our ideal target area aroung 24.20$ on friday for a short position on the downside.

the trend is our friend and looks like we are right below the 50 EMA on the hourly. keep your eyes peeled if you choose to take a short position so far just under that 50 EMA on the hourly

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looks like a minibull flag plying out on the 15 min chart, so def think we cantouch more green on friday

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On a different note, bar chart published a great article on GAP and it just screams BULLISH

Alot of the reasons why im bullish on GAP are explained here in short summary and i especially love these two quotes!

"We have a great year ahead of us "After years of being in the doghouse, Wall Street is finally buying what Gap iss selling."

"Add it all up, and Gap stock is a speculative buy anywhere near its current price of $23 per share."

I hope you find it useful! You can read it here on trading view under news:

tradingview.com/news/barchart:1146cff74094b:0-buy-this-stock-to-bet-on-a-textbook-retail-turnaround/

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My target has been touched, an aggressive short on my end was taken, please manage your own risk accordingly

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ok so first hour of the day and all i will say is thats a very hard ugly wick, the mini bull fag was completely violated and i expect more downside by EOD. with a wick like that, i will look to add further to my position incase there is a small bounce up

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that rejection happened extremely fast, my aggressive entry was well timed and well risked, and my current puts are now worth over 78% on today alone. we have rejected from the 50 EMA on the 4H and i expect more downside next week to 22$

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lets turn those GAP short profits into GAP shares !

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Another unexpected gap up and this time i wasn't going to let the opportunity slip by ! I didnt cath the top but i went ahead and i added to my positon on the way down

we are facing some support here though at the 23.20$ level so keep your eyes peeled for volatility within these next few sessions, very important week ahead of us!

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Going back to our daily chart, def looks like we are holding this level and that line i drew is matching perfectly with price for now. Regardless i still think we can possibly touch 20$ prior to earnings. 23-20$ is a buy for me !

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Still expecting that lower low to form in the general trend

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There's the reject! So, we definitely had to be patient here and our entry definitely gave us that wiggle room we needed to do that. Even though i think we can see further downside, I decided to take profits here due to the uncertainty of CPI data release tomorrow. I hate trading these because i have gotten smoked in the past so i trimmed off 75% of my position for roughly a 75% gain.

I'm not sure what will happen tomorrow, and how the market will react to the data, i do lean more on the bearish side and think the overall market could use a short term pull back but it's not something that im willing to risk with GAP here since we are in profit.

Still holding 25% of my position and at this point we are playing with house money. Let see how Thursday and Friday play out.

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building a short here

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We couldn't have exit any better yesterday, WHAT A MOVE!

The CPI data came slightly cooler than expected and big tech RALLIED. They rallied and then DUMPED while the small cap Russell 2000 saw a huge POP. This is good This is real good for us here at GAP because it signals a possible rotation where money flows out of big tech and the MAG 7 into more risk on assets like the IWM small cap ETF.

We also look like we have a technical breakout on the charts but im not getting to exited just yet. I chose to build a hedge position here with GAP right around when the stock was ~5% up on the day and further capitalized when we were at 7%.

It may seem foolish and extremely risky to open a short, but I am personally very suspicious of the macro environment of the equity markets and don't want to call it a victory just yet until i at least see how this week closes out, and im willing to accept tjhe loss if im wrong. We have the banks reporting earnings tomorrow, and they have not impressed me the past 2 quarters and have brought down the markets with them, Lets see if they can keep the party going or if small caps will have to wait a bit longer.

At a 9B market cap, it does not take much volume to push this stock up but it also doesnt take much to bring it down. Stay on your toes.

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alright so interesting week, down 1.44% on the day. im thinking we could either retest that trendline and bounce or range in this box here. im personally tired of shorting GAP and want to see us start the climb up but I'm not convinced just yet. net week will certainly clear things up

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We got the drop we speculated! Closed out the majority of my position for over 70% gain. This was an ugly pump & dump, and my skepticism and aggressive play did me well as we have essentially wiped out all of Thursday's gain.

I was very tempted to open a call position near close as we appear to be leveling off yet again near 22.90$, but i chose not to beaucese i want to see further cofirmation that we can hold this area and bounce up.

We are still holding support and have still broken the trend line so these next few sessions are critical for the direction that GAP will take, for now i choose to just observe, there is no need to overtrade or take another highly speculative trade. Lets wait for confirmation!

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The IWM is up yet again, and we are down over 4% here at GAP.

it sucks, but OUR TME WILL COME.

This is an earings play for me and we are 38 days left to go.
If you believe GAP is undervalued, making progeress, and can impress in earnings, dont loose site of what can come by some short-term volatility.

if we fail to hold support here then i expect a conservative retest of this medium term trendline around 21.50$, and that's an amazing buying opportunity in my opinion.

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stuck in this range picked uo a hedge yestereday before close

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if we cant break this level here i expect a push down

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BOOOM, we finished the day wth anther win. I hope yall caught that one, i closed my short for over a 90% gain on my entry. I observed, waited pateintly for an entry and my TP was hit perfectly.

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With that said i will say we are really building a case for support here and staying in this range that my original thesis predicted.

Three diffect times we jumped from here and as a pattern man the risk to reward ratio was too good to pass on. Happy to say i closed my put position and established a call postion right before market close!

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Can we still go down? We certainly can, a matter of fact there's a high chnace we might, BUT IM NOT GETTING GREEDY for 5% and will gladly DCA!

The market is shifting, the big boys are bleeding, and GAP is being noticed 👇

tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20240718008805:0/

This looks like accumulation to me and I'm happy to say that i am slowly transitioning from a very skeptical defense to a healthier offense!

I've doubled down on my options position and happy to say i accumulated shares here as we came dangerously close to touching my stop loss.

Going to add more wiggle room as i have bought more lower but If we break down, ill simpy close the call postion eat the loss and prepare to DCA more !

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in terms of calls intra day, these puppys were up a whooping 66% at open and i didnt take partials and my TP was not hit. Unfortunately, i saw them go from green to red and i dint move up my stop, but sometimes these things happen and i have bought lower before market close, this looks redy to bounce again!

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Rough day today but it shouldn't be a surprise, we have been calling that retest for a while now. I definitely sharked up more shares today and will gladly capitalize on further downside. i think we may be close to bottoming out soon

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There's the conservative touch we have been waiting for. The markets look shaky, and we have been dragged down with it but i dont think we'll stay here to long.

Looking back at our daily chart we look to be aproaching this more absolutely linee of support on the channel. I think these are great buying opportunities and we are just 29 days till earings.

tradingview.com/x/ZSuWM27c/+

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There is the touch on support. i expect us to remain above the 200 EMA and within this large megaphone like channel. The dust should likely settle by next week.

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So rough week for GAP but again it shouldn't be surprising to us, we have been calling for a retest of that channel support and this weekly chart has successfully touched the POC level. We have a golden cross between the 50 EMA and 200 EMA and the weekly trend remains bullish

Looking back at our daily chart it definitely looks to me like we are bottoming out. I have personally been DCA and think we can hold this trendline & hold above the 200 EMA

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there is the bounce on the trendline, and we are back in that 23$ area of support. Things are looking good for us, expect us to hang around this area olding tight on shares only for now.

gap left around 22.80$ wouldn't be surpiserd if we come down to fill, will consider adding more shares there

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markets look week, good bounce on gap. picked up more shares today lets see if we can hold 23$

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Rough week. the markets are weak and we will get dragged down, it will be bloody. don't be surprised if support is broken but don't get scared out if you believe in GAP. Fear and greed index is near extreme fear and we are being given buying opportunities. Its very risky but i believe GAP earnings will propel us up again. theres only 20 days left

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picked up a short term call position here , i expect us to reclaim support and test 22.60 again

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Markets are at extreme fear now and we have successfully tested that 200 EMA on the daily. As I mentioned above, I don't think we will fall further. My buy price is 23-20$ and that's what I have been doing

GAP was up as much as 4% but unfortunately closed at just 1.71% green. tomorrow will be very telling on what directing we are going

I've seen a couple negative articles surrounding GAP but im not getting scared

"Gap's Outlook Likely To Be Hit By Consumer Spending Challenges"

earnings are very tricky and this play has become very earnings dependent so i do want to advice some caution but i think this perfectly summons up why GAP is such a good buy right now 👇

tradingview.com/news/zacks:216250532094b:0-should-value-investors-buy-the-gap-gps-stock/

"The Gap is a stock many investors are watching right now. GPS is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) and an A for Value. The stock has a Forward P/E ratio of 11.68. This compares to its industry's average Forward P/E of 15.26. Over the past 52 weeks, GPS's Forward P/E has been as high as 22.71 and as low as 11.60, with a median of 15.85"

The people at Zacks are very competent its nice seeing their sign of approval. Tradingivew also has buy rating with analyst average at 28$, that also good to see!

retail giant ANF and big tech have been falling off a cliff and i think some of that capital will likely flow in undervalued stocks like GAP

And lastly famous gymnast Simone Biles has been absolutely killing it at the 2024 Olympics, she is signed to Athleta which is owned by GAP and that kind of exposire is good for us overall.

only 16 more days !

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alright tricky week but we are back on track if i say so myself. i did close out my calls

but we have successfully reclaimed support. To me the break of trendline was nothing more than a bear trap and that 200 EMA was there to perefectly test as support.

i expect is to hold off around this area, only 13 more days !

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holding support still and earnings creeping up

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nice pop today, would like to see that gap fill before earnings, chose not to short here and willing to buy more shares if we do fill

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Not sure why the charts are showing.

Ended th day flat and we are looking good! I want to see that gap fill before earnings and i do believe they were pushed back. Expectations are high and this trade is very earnings dependent. Maintain a healthy risk tolerance. We are almost there.

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seeing that big candle i entered a small, short here , will sell at 22.80$ and buy more shares

LaMASIA_100

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